To the Arctic: Amplified and Bayes Applied

November 27, 2013 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on To the Arctic: Amplified and Bayes Applied

“In accordance with Bayes’ theorem, prediction is fundamentally a type of information-processing activity – a matter of using new data to test our hypotheses about the objective world, with the goal of coming to truer and more accurate conceptions about it.” Nate Silver

Forward

I like Nate Silver and I feel bad about criticizing his book “The Signal and the Noise”. But after reading his global warming chapter twice through I have to admit that he deserves the criticism. Without a doubt, when he writes about the physics of climate change for the most part he is spot on. And I applaud his effort to try to understand it. However, my critique is technically valid, no apologies there; Silver blew his Bayesian analysis. He missed a perfectly good opportunity to contribute to a reduction of the noise level of the discourse increasing it instead. This is exactly the goal of the fossil fuels industry. So long as there is lots of noise, nobody sees the signal. I sent a draft to Silver and asked for comments so he has had a chance to defend himself or do the mea culpa. He did not respond so my conscience is clear. The mistakes he makes in applying Bayesian analysis to the global warming problem include:

  • He uses false new data introducing misinformation, which has been comprehensively debunked. See ref [17].
  • He ignores true information.
  • He assumes that the climate system is memoryless.
  • He only applies the analysis to the IPCC consensus hypothesis and not to the myriad denier hypotheses.

… Continue Reading

Outside Gas Leak in Leesburg

November 25, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Outside Gas Leak in Leesburg

At approximately 7:30 a.m., Friday November 22, a construction vehicle working at the intersection of Sycolin Road and Tavistock Drive damaged a gas control valve operating a large diameter, pressurized gas line. Fire and Rescue units from Leesburg, Lansdowne and the Loudoun County Hazardous Materials Team responded to the scene. The leak resulted in the temporary closure of Sycolin Road between Battlefield Parkway and the Leesburg Airport while Washington Gas worked to mitigate the leak. Offices at 803 Sycolin Road were temporarily evacuated as a precaution and access to nearby properties was delayed.

The leak was contained and repairs performed by approximately 9:30 a.m. Sycolin Road was subsequently reopened to thru traffic and access to affected properties has been restored.

No injuries to civilian or fire-rescue personnel were reported.

Purcellville Police Blotter

November 25, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Purcellville Police Blotter

11/15/13 – 9:27 p.m. – 1000 block of S. 20th St. – Narcotic Violations, Liquor Violation and Tobacco Violation – 3 juveniles were detained and later released to their parents.
11/17/13 – 12:30 p.m. – 400 block of Crosman Ct. – Nonviolent Family Dispute – Complaint worked by police and resolved.
11/17/13 – 6:51 p.m. – 17000 block of Strathallen Ct. – Nonviolent Family Dispute – Complaint worked by police and resolved.
11/18/13 – 10:58 p.m. – 200 block of Hackley Ct. – Nonviolent Family Dispute – Complaint worked by police and resolved.

Fire Marshal’s Office Lifts Open Burning Ban at Midnight Tonight

November 22, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Fire Marshal’s Office Lifts Open Burning Ban at Midnight Tonight

Effective 12:00 a.m., Friday November 22, 2013, the Loudoun County Fire Marshal’s Office (FMO) is lifting the temporary open burning ban for Loudoun County as the fire danger level has dropped for the next several days. We will now be operating under the Fall/Winter Open Burning Guidelines through February 14, 2014 unless otherwise dictated by the Loudoun County FMO.

To determine the fire danger level, weather data from National Weather Service stations and local forestry offices is analyzed every morning. This analysis results in a predicted fire danger level and a class of day assigned. This may drive the need for a local burn ban to be enacted when the fire danger is high or a class three day. The fire danger level is predicted to be a class one up to a class two for the next several days; hence the local burn ban is being lifted.

For a detailed explanation of the Fall/Winter Open Burning Guidelines, visit www.loudoun.gov/firemarshal. For additional questions or information, please contact the Loudoun County Fire Marshal’s Office directly at 703-737-8600.

Round Hill Welcomes Holiday Season on December 7

November 22, 2013 News, Our Towns Comments Off on Round Hill Welcomes Holiday Season on December 7

The Round Hill community will celebrate “Holidays in Round Hill” on Saturday, December 7, with an array of activities.

On Saturday afternoon, the Round Hill Arts Center will offer a special family ornament workshop from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. All ages are welcome; children under seven should have adult assistance. The workshop costs $25, which includes refreshments and all materials for four different ornaments. The Round Hill Arts Center is located in the Hill High Orchards complex on Route 7 just west of Round Hill. Register by calling 540-338-5022 or visiting www.roundhillartscenter.org. While at Hill High, be sure to visit the Country Store and the Gateway Gallery for unique locally produced gifts, and leave time to enjoy a glass of mulled wine by the fire at Bogati Bodega. … Continue Reading

Firefighters Collecting Toys for Tots

November 22, 2013 Loudoun County, News Comments Off on Firefighters Collecting Toys for Tots

The Loudoun County Fire-Rescue System and the Loudoun Career Fire Fighters Association are participating in the 66th annual Toys for Tots Campaign, sponsored by the United Stated Marine Corps Reserve.

“The department is proud to once again participate in this wonderful program,” said Fire Chief W. Keith Brower, Jr. “Your generosity will help put smiles on the faces of sick or needy children this holiday season.”

The Toys for Tots Campaign began in 1947 when a group of U.S. Marine Reservists collected and distributed 5,000 toys to needy children in the Los Angeles area at Christmas. In 2010, Marines distributed toys to more than 7.2 million children. … Continue Reading

Announcing NLJC Loudoun Philanthropic Events and Annual Ball

November 20, 2013 Events, Lifestyle Comments Off on Announcing NLJC Loudoun Philanthropic Events and Annual Ball

The 3rd Annual Ball for The National League of Debutante Cotillions Loudoun Chapter will be held Friday Nov. 22 at Belmont Country Club as six young ladies, high school juniors and seniors, will be introduced to society. The Debutantes and their Marshalls, will demonstrate their figure presentation and Debutante Cotillion Waltz, choreographed by director Jean Ann Michie of Purcellville, for invited guests. The Debutantes, in their beautiful white formal gowns and gloves, will waltz to the music of the 15-piece Northern Lights Dance Orchestra.

According to Jean Ann Michie, Director of NLJC, “The Loudoun Debutante is a young lady who is gracious, poised, well groomed, and cultured. She is at the threshold of adulthood and uses this time in her life to refine, as well as define, herself. She is aware of all those around her, and puts her thoughts and good will into action. She chooses to be an influence for good and to offer gentility to a world that stands in great need.” … Continue Reading

Lovettsville Scouting for Food Drive 2013

November 20, 2013 Loudoun County, News Comments Off on Lovettsville Scouting for Food Drive 2013

Cub Scouts and Girls Scouts Join Forces to Stock Western Loudoun Food Pantry With Over 2,000 Pounds of Food

Saturday, November 9, marked the culmination of two Saturdays each November when Lovettsville Cub Scout Pack 962 goes “Scouting For Food.” Each year, the Boy Scouts of America’s “Scouting for Food ” food drive raises many tons of food for food banks nationwide, and Lovettsville Pack 962 has a long history of supporting our area community through this grand tradition.

New this year, the Western Loudoun Food Pantry in Lovettsville was added as an official receiving location for Scouting For Food, so that all of the food collected in Lovettsville could return to help those in Lovettsville in need of assistance. Scouts turned out in force, joined by five Lovettsville Girl Scout Troops (1434, 4096, 4891, 6649, and 6652) to collect, weigh, sort, and shelve the food beginning at 9:00 a.m. Saturday morning. The scouts wrapped up their activities a little after 12:00 with the pantry well stocked with 2,083 pounds of food. … Continue Reading

Marching Royal Dukes Represent JMU in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

November 20, 2013 Events, Lifestyle Comments Off on Marching Royal Dukes Represent JMU in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

The 2013 Marching Royal Dukes of James Madison University will travel to New York City to perform in the 87th annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade ®. The band is slated to lead the parade when it kicks off at 9 a.m. The following students in your area will be performing with the Marching Royal Dukes in New York:

Justin Dennison of Middleburg, a sophomore majoring in music education plays in the band’s trumpet section. Dennison graduated from Loudoun Valley High School.

Cameron Helble of Round Hill, a majoring in plays in the band’s dukette section. Helble graduated from .

Abigail Moore of Purcelllville, a freshman majoring in accounting plays in the band’s guard section. Moore graduated from Loudoun valley high. … Continue Reading

Call for Artists

November 20, 2013 Events, Lifestyle Comments Off on Call for Artists

February 1 is Application Deadline for 2014 Western Loudoun Artists Studio Tour

Visual artists can apply online now for the 9th annual Western Loudoun Artists Studio Tour, scheduled for June 21-22, 2014. The application deadline is Saturday, February 1, 2014, no exceptions.

Artists working in all fine art media who create their work in Loudoun studios may apply to this juried event. Those selected will open their studios to the public for two full days, exposing their work to visitors from the metropolitan region. Last year’s tour brought over a thousand visitors into more than 30 studios, allowing artists to connect with a targeted audience, increasing their visibility and providing an opportunity to promote and sell their work. … Continue Reading

Sheriff’s Recent Personnel Moves Uncover Possible Embezzlement

November 20, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Sheriff’s Recent Personnel Moves Uncover Possible Embezzlement

The Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office is conducting an internal affairs investigation in conjunction with a Virginia State Police criminal investigation, into allegations of embezzlement in the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office. The investigation began in late October this year after a restructuring of LCSO personnel. The embezzlement allegations were uncovered immediately after Sheriff Chapman restructured units within the Criminal Investigations and Patrol Divisions. As soon as Sheriff Chapman was notified of the potential criminal activity, he contacted the Virginia State Police and requested that an independent investigation be conducted. As no criminal charges have yet been filed, the Sheriff’s Office cannot disclose the name or names of any LCSO employees under investigation. At this point, one employee has been placed on administrative leave. Any further criminal investigation announcements are expected to come from the Virginia State Police.

LCSO Joins Instagram to Reach out to Younger Audience

November 16, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on LCSO Joins Instagram to Reach out to Younger Audience

In an effort to further reach out to the community, the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office announced the agency is now on Instagram at www.instagram.com/loudounsheriff. The social media site will allow the agency to share pictures and video of featured cases and Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office events. “In an effort to reach out to all areas of the public, we wanted to further connect with the young adults in our community,” said Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman. “We believe Instagram is one social media platform that can help us make this connection,” he added. The Loudoun Sheriff’s Office currently utilizes several social media sites in an attempt to reach out to a wider audience. … Continue Reading

Restoring Hope

November 16, 2013 Faith, Lifestyle Comments Off on Restoring Hope

By Mark Gunderman

Have you ever been depressed because of your finances? There’s a feeling of loneliness as well as one of being run over by a Mack truck. It’s not a good feeling. If that happens to you, don’t run away! Pick up the phone and get help. Financial matters are not rocket science; they just seem that way. There is a method to the madness of recovering from financial mayhem, no matter how bad you may think the situation has become. There is a proverb that states “Hope deferred makes the heart sick, but a longing fulfilled is a tree of life” (Proverbs 13:12). This verse states that if you stay stuck where you are without reaching out and talking to someone, you are “deferring hope.” However, once you pick up the phone and see what your options are, you bring “life” to the situation. … Continue Reading


 

 

 

 

Columns

Public Input June 6, 2017

Public input June 6, 2017 “We must, incidentally, make it clear from the beginning that if a thing is not science, it is not necessarily bad. For example, love is not a science. So, if something is said not to …

Anatomy of a Sunflower

By Andrea Gaines Nothing is as simple and summery as that big yellow ray of light known as the sunflower. These not-so-bashful beauties enter the world from seeds we’ve sown intentionally, or from seeds tossed out as happy, uneaten castaways …

Parental Help Needed

Dr. Mike, My husband and I are planning to hold our son back to repeat eighth grade. He plays on a travel sports team, and the extra year would give him an advantage for high school. My sister did it …

Misconceptions about 529 Plans

Just like the kids you’re saving college funds for, 529 plans are often misunderstood. Read on to learn 529 plans are more flexible than you may think. They can be set up by anyone, for anyone, and used for a …

Transforming Scars – Engendering Hope

By Samuel Moore-Sobel The woman’s voice on the other end of the line is warm and inviting, speaking softly in crisp tones, with great excitement, and at a hurried pace. Her words are eloquent and profound. Furiously I type, trying …

Addicted

By Mary Rose Lunde When most people think of addictions, they choose the more well-known types, such as alcohol or drugs. But there are other addictions that people don’t always want to talk about. These can include: screen time, video …

Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth: Cooksville Road

By Tim Jon You see – there’s this bell: A church bell, suspended inside a little white tower atop the old Mount Olive Baptist church building – that you can see for just a few split-seconds as you make your …

Student News

Congratulations, Class of 2016

6 Jul 2016

Woodgrove High School’s Class Of 2016 Graduation – By Amanda Clark On June 16, Woodgrove’s Class of 2016 was the 5th graduating class to walk the stage and accept their diploma. The ceremony was filled with anticipation as the chorus, …

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Buckland Earns Degree In Medicine

6 Jul 2016

Molly Buckland, D.O., graduated from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine with a degree of Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine on May 28. While at WVSOM, Dr. Buckland received the Dr. Roland P. Sharp President’s Award and the James R. …

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Adams Promoted To Lieutenant

6 Jul 2016

Lt. James Adams, from Sterling and a Potomac Falls Halls Graduate, earned the promotion to the rank of Lieutenant. Adams is a Navy Week and Executive Outreach Planner for the Navy Office of Community Outreach in Millington, Tennessee. U.S. Navy …

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ATTENTION CALENDAR USERS: IT IS NO LONGER NECESSARY TO LOG IN TO POST EVENTS. PLEASE CLICK HERE INSTEAD.

Calendar

June 2017
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
May 29, 2017

Coming Up Spring

Coming Up Spring
May 30, 2017

Coming Up Spring

Coming Up Spring
May 31, 2017

Coming Up Spring

Coming Up Spring
June 1, 2017 June 2, 2017

First Friday at the Winery

First Friday at the Winery

TGIF@North Gate Vineyard with Maddy Curtis Live

TGIF@North Gate Vineyard with Maddy Curtis Live
June 3, 2017

CA$H Bingo

CA$H Bingo

Moon Music Live at North Gate Vineyard

Moon Music Live at North Gate Vineyard

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event
June 4, 2017

OPEN HOUSE EXTRAVAGANZA

OPEN HOUSE EXTRAVAGANZA
June 5, 2017 June 6, 2017 June 7, 2017

Beale Street Puppets: Teddy Bear Circus

Beale Street Puppets: Teddy Bear Circus
June 8, 2017 June 9, 2017

CA$H Bingo

CA$H Bingo
June 10, 2017

20th Annual Cajun Festival

20th Annual Cajun Festival

Dear Creek Live at North Gate Vineyard

Dear Creek Live at North Gate Vineyard

Healing Service

Healing Service
June 11, 2017

Come Paint with Us

Come Paint with Us
June 12, 2017 June 13, 2017 June 14, 2017 June 15, 2017 June 16, 2017 June 17, 2017

CA$H Bingo

CA$H Bingo

Pete Lapp Live at north Gate Vineyard

Pete Lapp Live at north Gate Vineyard
June 18, 2017
June 19, 2017 June 20, 2017 June 21, 2017 June 22, 2017 June 23, 2017

CA$H Bingo

CA$H Bingo
June 24, 2017

THE PICKWICK PLAYERS: You Can’t Take It With You

THE PICKWICK PLAYERS: You Can’t Take It With You

Acoustic Soul Live at north Gate Vineyard

Acoustic Soul Live at north Gate Vineyard

THE PICKWICK PLAYERS: You Can’t Take It With You

THE PICKWICK PLAYERS: You Can’t Take It With You
June 25, 2017
June 26, 2017 June 27, 2017 June 28, 2017

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids
June 29, 2017

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids
June 30, 2017

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids

MAIN STREET THEATER PRODUCTIONS: Disney’s The Jungle Book Kids
July 1, 2017

CA$H Bingo

CA$H Bingo

Willie White Live at North Gate Vineyard

Willie White Live at North Gate Vineyard

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event
July 2, 2017

Quentin Walston Live at North Gate Vineyard

Quentin Walston Live at North Gate Vineyard
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Lifestyle

Music with a Cause June Concert: Bud’s Collective

31 May 2017

The Music with a Cause Concert celebrates the culmination of its first year with a concert to be held at Otium Cellars at 5:30 p.m. on Sunday, June 4. Bud’s Collective is a powerful trio of pickers from the hills of West Virginia. The evening will also feature an auction of a piece from David Norton Pottery. Norton is an …

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Loudoun Library Card Design Contest Has Begun

31 May 2017

Loudoun artists are invited to submit designs for Loudoun County Public Library’s Second Annual Library Card Design Contest, which began May 22. A panel of judges from the Loudoun County Art Advisory Committee will choose three finalists based on creativity, originality, and message. Artwork or photography submitted should reflect the spirit of Loudoun and the work of Loudoun County Public …

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Loudoun Art Advisory Committee – Call for Artists

31 May 2017

All Loudoun County artists are invited to submit original photographs for the 2017 Loudoun County Art Advisory Committee show “Loudoun’s Evolving Landscape: At-Risk Art Project.” The photographs, which may be in color or black and white, will be exhibited in Gallery One on the first floor of the Loudoun County Government Center, 1 Harrison Street, S.E. in Leesburg, from September …

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Editorial

Priscilla Nabs Plum Planning Commission Post

Appointment Shocks Many On January 3 Supervisor Tony R. Buffington Jr. (R-Blue Ridge) nominated Tom Priscilla for the Loudoun County Planning Commission to represent the Blue Ridge District. Priscilla was …

Op-ed

Opinion: Terrorism, Debt, and China: Oh My!

– By Nick Reid world can be a very dangerous place sometimes, especially for a nation state such as the United States. Although danger is always present, the number and …

Metro Money Mess Pushing West

– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33rd) A local paper recently quoted Loudoun Board Chair Phyllis Randall as saying that in her observation “some of the concerns raised by the people …

Dear Editor

A Winner of a Budget

On May 23, Mayor Kwasi Fraser and the Purcellville Town Council voted to finalize the FY18 budget on behalf of our taxpayers. As an elected government, this is the greatest responsibility that we have. We also have the unlimited ability …

Supports Walbridge

I am proud to endorse and express my full support for Tia Walbridge to represent the 33rd District in Richmond.  As a current Town Council member in Purcellville, I understand the concerns of Purcellville and western Loudoun citizens and I …

View From the Ridge

Envision Loudoun – Bold Action Versus Business-As-Usual

Everyone is talking about it. “Envision Loudoun,” our local government’s effort to reach out to the public for advice on how to rewrite and update the County’s Comprehensive Plan. Officials …

Around Virginia

Tuesday, June 13 – Primary Elections Voting Information

A Primary Election for both parties is scheduled on June 13. Voters will choose a candidate for the Republican Party for the offices of Governor and Lieutenant Governor. For the Democratic Party voters will choose a candidate for the offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor and House of Delegates for the 33 …

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Cultivate Innovation-Driven Solutions

By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33) Schools are letting out for summer break and many families are celebrating graduations and making plans for college. Few would disagree with the importance of quality affordable education. While it may not be prominent in the conversations, our state and local governments play key roles …

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Transportation: Problem Solving and Promises Kept

– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33) Four years ago I came before the voters of the 33rd District, challenging the status quo transportation funding policies that sent our taxes to other parts of the state while leaving us sitting in traffic. I called out projects like the Dulles Rail Project, …

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Sports

Purcellville Cannons: Talent, Talent and More Talent

31 May 2017

By Andrea Gaines Cannons home opener vs. the Winchester Royals at Fireman’s Field, Friday, June 3. At their 2017 home opener, the Los Angeles Dodgers absolutely trounced the San Diego Padres. Said one sports commentator: “Their opening-day bats were so special … it was easy to forget the Dodgers also …

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WLVBC U14 Boys Volleyball Wins WLVBC Invitational

3 May 2017

The Western Loudoun Volleyball Club’s U14 Boys team won the inaugural WLVBC Invitational Tournament held Saturday, April 15 at Foxcroft School.  The team went 4-0 on the day, winning first place against WLVBC U15 boys team in a three-set match 25-19, 22-25 and 15-11. The team reached the Gold Bracket …

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