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Norfolk and El Nino

September 24, 2015 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Norfolk and El Nino
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“In the waters of the Eastern Pacific, strong westerly winds have pushed a massive amount of warm water against the coasts of the Americas, resulting in one of the strongest El Niño events ever observed. Not only does El Niño impact atmospheric patterns, changing storm tracks and suppressing Atlantic hurricane frequency, it also typically resulting in an increase in coastal “nuisance” flooding at high tide along the U.S. West Coast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Nuisance flooding is expensive, causing frequent road closures, overwhelmed storm water systems, and damage to infrastructure. According to a September 9 press release from NOAA, some cities along the mid-Atlantic coast can expect record amounts of “nuisance” flooding at high tide during the coming winter—at Sandy Hook, NJ, Lewes DE, Washington D.C. and Norfolk, VA.” – Jeff Masters [1] … Continue Reading

The Limits of Price and the Club of Foam

September 15, 2015 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on The Limits of Price and the Club of Foam
noerpel150

“Excuse me; it’s not limited from an economic point of view. You have to separate the economic from the physical point of view. Many of the mistakes people make come from this. Like the stupid projections of the Club of Rome; they used a purely physical approach, without taking prices into account. There are many different sources of energy, some of which are too expensive to be exploited now. But if oil becomes scarce they will be exploited. But the market, which is fortunately capable of registering and using widely scattered knowledge and information from people all over the world, will take account of those changes.” – Milton Friedman when asked about limited resources. [1]

It is not just economists like Ha-Joon Chang, Steve Keen and Kent Klitgaard, and physicists like Reiner Kummel, Robert Ayers and Mark Buchanan, and systems scientists like George Mobus, or engineers such as myself who have observed that economics is not a science, even Milton Friedman distanced economics or certainly his own economics from science as we see in the quote above. … Continue Reading

Poseidon’s Misadventure

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“A sea level rise of 5m in a century is about the most extreme in the paleo record (Fairbanks, 1989; Deschamps et al., 2012), but the assumed 21st century climate forcing is also more rapidly growing than any known natural forcing.” Hansen et al. [1]

In 2012 I forecast [2] that the planet was locked into at least 5 meters of sea level rise. I did not give a time frame other than to suggest that immediate action to limit fossil fuel consumption might slow the rise enough for relatively easy adaptation and keep the rise from being even higher. During the Melt Water Pulse 1 (MPW1) event 14,600 years ago, sea levels rose 5 meters per century for several centuries. Though such a rate is rare, one meter of sea level rise per century is common to abrupt climate change events such as Heinrich Events. Thus a rough estimate of the time frame would be 100 to 500 years or more. Of course it doesn’t necessarily stop there. We can make it worse. … Continue Reading

A Man of Character

September 3, 2015 Columns, Samuel Moore-Sobel 1 comment
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By Samuel Moore-Sobel

“I thought it would be appropriate to reiterate my thoughts on power and quote something from Frederick Douglass that I believe is quite true,” Manfred Kory wrote to me after reading Lonnae O’Neill’s June 29 column in The Washington Post. “‘Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or both.’”

In my experience, this is a typical conversation with this man that I call “Zayde,” which in Yiddish means “grandfather.” To commemorate his 84th birthday, I write about a man who exemplifies true manhood and though not related to me by blood, has made an indelible mark upon my life and continually challenges me spiritually, emotionally and intellectually to be the best that I can be. This man is too modest to boast about his own accomplishments, yet his story holds great meaning. … Continue Reading

Perfection and Expectation in High School

September 3, 2015 Columns, Mary Rose Lunde Comments Off on Perfection and Expectation in High School
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By Mary Rose Lunde

If you think about high school, what do you think about? Do you think about the sports and how important they are to some students whose only dream of getting into college is a scholarship? Do you think about the high school student struggling for an A in an Advanced Placement class so they can get into the best college? Well, when I think about high school I think about the general idea, where high school doesn’t prepare anyone for college or the real world.

Think about it, truly think about what high school does for a kid, think about what it did for you? Did it really prepare you for the real world? No. For high school teenagers, high school is not preparing them for anything but failure in the future. Understand that high school is all about grades and the occasional extracurricular and honor society. The idea is simple, you need to be perfect for everyone else, that’s the image high school gives off. … Continue Reading

When To Take Social Security: Timing Is Everything

September 3, 2015 Amy and Dan Smith, Columns Comments Off on When To Take Social Security: Timing Is Everything
Smith0035

As you approach retirement, there are several decisions that can impact the level of income you will receive when you stop working. One such decision will be about claiming your Social Security retirement benefit.

More than half of eligible Americans take their benefits “early”-after they reach 62, even though they are locking in a permanent reduction in their monthly payment by as much as 25 percent. Still, “early” makes sense for many if they have little in savings and simply need the money. However, many do it because they can, without realizing they are giving up progressively higher payments each year they wait to claim, potentially losing as much as 32 percent than if they had waited to age 70. Surveys have shown that nearly 40 percent in this camp actually regret their decision to claim “early” once they realize how much they have given up in lifetime income. For some couples, this could translate into hundreds of thousands of dollars for not adopting a “wait to take” strategy. … Continue Reading

Childhood and Adolescent Depression: Tips for Parents and Caregivers

September 2, 2015 Ask Dr. Mike, Columns Comments Off on Childhood and Adolescent Depression: Tips for Parents and Caregivers
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By Michael Oberschneider, Psy.D.

According to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), depression affects one in every 10 Americans.  And while the CDC’s data on depression currently shows that folks residing in the Commonwealth of Virginia fall slightly below the national average, many children, adolescents and adults in our area suffer from depressive disorders. 

In fact, childhood and adolescent depression is on the rise, and a 2014 survey conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) found depression to be the number one disability and illness for adolescents worldwide. WHO’s survey also ranked suicide as the third leading cause of death worldwide for adolescents, following road/traffic injuries and HIV/AIDS, respectively. Moreover, research has shown that about half of those who suffer from mental health conditions later in life showed symptoms by 14 years of age. … Continue Reading

Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth: Suzanne Kane Nature Preserve

September 2, 2015 Columns, Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth Comments Off on Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth: Suzanne Kane Nature Preserve
suzanne kayne nature

This innocuous little area lay smoldering in my semi-consciousness for several years – and after thousands of passings-by – I finally woke up one morning and just had to find out what was to be found out there. See – for the last half-dozen years or so, I’ve had to drive by the Suzanne Kane Nature Preserve and Chapman DeMary Trail signs on my way to earning the daily bread at the Purcellville Postal Facility. Some mornings – not to mention late afternoons or early (or even late) evenings those formally-worded placards left no noticeable impression on my senses; I may have been on overload from the rigors and concerns of rural mail (and parcel) delivery. But I had made mental notes to check out this local resource at some point: I’d noticed the ‘cool-looking,’ shaded little picnic area behind the Inova Medical Offices off Hirst Road, I’d watched some of the ‘developments’ unfold on the other end of the Park and Trail off 21st Street, and I’d even seen a red fox high-tailing it into the brush a time or two along the South Fork of Catoctin Creek as it crosses Hatcher Avenue on the north side of town. … Continue Reading

Kitchen Science Kids: Garden-in-a-Jar

September 2, 2015 Columns, Kitchen Science Kids Comments Off on Kitchen Science Kids: Garden-in-a-Jar
sciencekids

By Leah Enright

I love gardens, and growing things, especially when they are tiny, and in a jar in my kitchen. I can see the process of a seed growing into a plant, and help it along with a bit of water and attention. Would your like to try your hand at a mini garden?

Gather these ingredients:
½ cup dried lentils, (green or brown)
A wide mouth jar, cleaned (a mason or empty sauce jar)
Cheesecloth
A thick rubber band to secure the cloth
Water … Continue Reading

Not Your Father’s El Nino

August 15, 2015 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Not Your Father’s El Nino
noerpel150

NASA and other agencies now forecast the incipient El Nino conditions to continue at least into the winter and the early part of 2016. Figure 1 compares Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly for the El Nino of 1997- 1998 with the current sea surface temperature anomaly. These data are from August 6, 1997 and August 5, 2015. Note the huge impressive blob of heat on the west coast of Central America. So it looks the same but different and may not evolve in the same way.

In Figure 2 I’ve plotted the global temperature anomaly up to and including the July 2015 data published by NASA. If we assume that the 2015-2016 El Nino plays out similar to the 1997-1998 event and is followed by a strong La Nina, we can make a crude first order estimate of the global temperature anomaly out to 2025. The trend line of the anomaly from 1979 until July 2015 has a slope of 0.0165 degrees C per year. Since events are unfolding 18 years later, I’ve added 18*0.0165 = 0.297 degrees C to the monthly temperature anomaly for each corresponding month. We see that if the El Nino plays out anything like the 1997-1998 event, we may never again experience a year as cold as the year global warming “stopped” in 1998. … Continue Reading

More Than a GPA

August 7, 2015 Columns, Mary Rose Lunde Comments Off on More Than a GPA
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By Mary Rose Lunde

In school we are measured in every way based on a number system from a point scale resulting in grades then translated into a GPA that can’t be easily fixed in just one semester. Students are forced to think that all they have to achieve is just an A in one class that could influence their future job. School is getting harder and harder with each passing year. The pressure to get straight A’s is at its upmost high with an emphasis that if you aren’t at the top you won’t be successful. This could not be more false. If anything, it is a complete misconception of the truth; anyone can be successful no matter what grades. … Continue Reading

What It Means To Be a Man

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By Samuel Moore-Sobel

As I have gotten older I have noticed that there are more and more young men who ask me for advice. To me it seems silly – I am often not much older than the person asking, so what impactful words can I impart? Yet this year I have begun a tradition that I hope will continue for years to come. With the recent batch of graduations and birthdays, I found myself writing letters. In last month’s column I detailed how my parents had asked mentors to write letters to me that were compiled into a wisdom book on my behalf when I turned 18. This year I decided it was time to give back to those who ask for advice, and start writing letters filled with humble yet heartfelt words. … Continue Reading

At Wits End

August 7, 2015 Ask Dr. Mike, Columns Comments Off on At Wits End
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Dr. Mike,
My sister’s son is autistic, but she is in complete denial. I’ve done my research and he fits a diagnosis of autism. He is three years old and doesn’t talk or socialize. He has meltdowns that are out of this world and noises overwhelm him and leaving to go someplace upsets him. He also shakes his arms and hands when he gets overwhelmed, which I read about is “stimming,” and is a symptom of autism. My sister says her son has “ADHD” but he is not ADHD, he is autistic. As far as I can tell, my nephew doesn’t get any services or medicine for his “ADHD.” We just returned from a large family beach week vacation and his problems are getting worse. This year my own children got upset with their cousin a few times when he acted out. He also became aggressive a couple times with my children. I don’t know if another year at the beach together is a good idea for us if things don’t change. I guess I would feel a lot better if we all just addressed the white elephant in the room. How do I get my sister to admit that her son has autism so that she can finally get him the help he needs? How do I talk to my children about their cousin? I love my sister but am at my wits end.
… Continue Reading


 

 

 

 

 

 

Columns

2016 in the Books

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(Presented to the Board of Supervisors February, 2017) “The last three years have demonstrated abundantly clearly that there is no change in the long-term trends since 1998. A prediction from 1997 merely continuing the linear trends would significantly under-predict the …

A Rainy Romance

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By Samuel Moore-Sobel “If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen them all” – a simple phrase uttered in an acclaimed musical that helped birth a star. The movie’s Kathy Selden (Debbie Reynolds) catches his attention so completely that Don Lockwood (Gene …

Concerned Parents

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By Michael Oberschneider, Psy.D. Dr. Mike, Our 15-year-old son is out of control and we don’t know what to do anymore. He smokes pot and drinks, disobeys us left and right, is truant from school often, comes home whenever he …

It’s Time To Review Your Estate Planning Basics

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Beginners and billionaires alike should refresh their knowledge of these basic estate planning terms and concepts. The word “estate” tends to conjure up images of billionaires and aristocrats, but estate planning is not just for the wealthy. It’s widely believed …

Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth: George Marshall Center

George Marshall Center

I used to wonder why – after an assignment to visit the interior of this place, I’d return feeling exhausted – both mentally and physically worn out – as if I’d been carrying an extra couple hundred pounds or so …

Meeting the “Other America”

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By Nicholas Reid Ever since the presidential election last November, there has been a lot of talk about the “two Americas”: coastal and continental America. The many differences between these two sections of the United States are numerous and oftentimes …

The Trump Effect

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“Corals are marine magicians. As colonies of the tiny ocean organisms grow, they transform the calcium that circulates in seawater into enormous limestone reefs. These reefs—which can extend for more than 1,000 miles and provide homes for crabs, eels, sea …

Student News

Congratulations, Class of 2016

6 Jul 2016

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Woodgrove High School’s Class Of 2016 Graduation – By Amanda Clark On June 16, Woodgrove’s Class of 2016 was the 5th graduating class to walk the stage and accept their diploma. The ceremony was filled with anticipation as the chorus, …

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Buckland Earns Degree In Medicine

6 Jul 2016

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Molly Buckland, D.O., graduated from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine with a degree of Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine on May 28. While at WVSOM, Dr. Buckland received the Dr. Roland P. Sharp President’s Award and the James R. …

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Adams Promoted To Lieutenant

6 Jul 2016

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Lt. James Adams, from Sterling and a Potomac Falls Halls Graduate, earned the promotion to the rank of Lieutenant. Adams is a Navy Week and Executive Outreach Planner for the Navy Office of Community Outreach in Millington, Tennessee. U.S. Navy …

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Calendar

February 2017
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
January 30, 2017 January 31, 2017 February 1, 2017 February 2, 2017

Chair Yoga

Chair Yoga

Yoga for Men

Yoga for Men
February 3, 2017 February 4, 2017

CHINESE NEW YEAR EVENT

CHINESE NEW YEAR EVENT

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Readers Theater

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Readers Theater

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event
February 5, 2017
February 6, 2017 February 7, 2017 February 8, 2017 February 9, 2017

Chair Yoga

Chair Yoga

Yoga for Men

Yoga for Men
February 10, 2017 February 11, 2017

Valentine's Pizza & Champagne

Valentine's Pizza & Champagne

Sweetheart’s Soirée- A Night of Dinner & Dancing

Sweetheart’s Soirée- A Night of Dinner & Dancing
February 12, 2017

Candlelight Concert Fundraiser

Candlelight Concert Fundraiser

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Writers’ Night Out

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Writers’ Night Out
February 13, 2017 February 14, 2017 February 15, 2017

Bob Brown Puppets: Dragon Feathers

Bob Brown Puppets: Dragon Feathers
February 16, 2017 February 17, 2017

ARTSPOWER: RAINBOW FISH

ARTSPOWER: RAINBOW FISH
February 18, 2017

Wine & Chili Weekend

Wine & Chili Weekend

BALLET THEATRE OF ASHBURN AND EDGE PERFORMANCE COMPANY: MALONE BENEFIT CONCERT

BALLET THEATRE OF ASHBURN AND EDGE PERFORMANCE COMPANY: MALONE BENEFIT CONCERT

Comedy Night feat. Tyrone Davis

Comedy Night feat. Tyrone Davis
February 19, 2017
February 20, 2017 February 21, 2017 February 22, 2017 February 23, 2017 February 24, 2017

February Fourth Friday

February Fourth Friday
February 25, 2017

Samedi Gras Celebration

Samedi Gras Celebration
February 26, 2017
February 27, 2017 February 28, 2017 March 1, 2017 March 2, 2017 March 3, 2017

LAST HAM STANDING COMEDY IMPROV

LAST HAM STANDING COMEDY IMPROV
March 4, 2017

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event
March 5, 2017
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Lifestyle

LCSO Announces Project Emergency Response

22 Feb 2017

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The Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office, in partnership with Loudoun County Public Schools, has developed a pilot program to assist emergency responders and individuals with Autism and their families to successfully manage emergency situations. The program, called Project Emergency Response, will allow family members and other caregivers to provide crucial information about their loved ones to first responders. The information will …

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Hillsboro Plans Mardi Gras Celebration on February 25

20 Feb 2017

nothing else main in hillsboro grey

Mardi Gras celebration will be held in Hillsboro on Saturday, February 25 as a benefit for the Old Stone Schoolhouse. The event will begin at 7:30 p.m. Hurricanes and New Orleans drinks, as well as Old 690 beer and local wines will be served in the Garden District Bar. The Cajun Cafe will feature New Orleans cuisine, including King Cakes. …

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Four Young Historians Discuss Civil War Turning Points

2 Feb 2017

younghistorians

The Mosby Heritage Area Association will hold a talk featuring a panel of four young historians who will discuss turning points in the Civil War. The talk will be held at Unison Methodist Church, 21148 Unison Road, Middleburg, from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. on Sunday, February 12. Tickets will be sold at the door or online at www.mosbyheritagearea.org/events for $15 …

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Editorial

Priscilla Nabs Plum Planning Commission Post

Loudoun County Seal Color

Appointment Shocks Many On January 3 Supervisor Tony R. Buffington Jr. (R-Blue Ridge) nominated Tom Priscilla for the Loudoun County Planning Commission to represent the Blue Ridge District. Priscilla was …

Op-ed

Opinion: Terrorism, Debt, and China: Oh My!

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– By Nick Reid world can be a very dangerous place sometimes, especially for a nation state such as the United States. Although danger is always present, the number and …

Metro Money Mess Pushing West

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– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33rd) A local paper recently quoted Loudoun Board Chair Phyllis Randall as saying that in her observation “some of the concerns raised by the people …

Dear Editor

Why Williams Gap Road Should Not Be Paved

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Today, most residents of Loudoun County know nothing about Williams Gap, even those living on Williams Gap Road (Route 711). Knowing who “Williams” was, why a gap in the Blue …

Vote No To the Minor Special Exception

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We are a group of Loudoun County citizens who will be adversely affected if the board grants a special exception for the Catesby Farm property at your upcoming meeting. You …

View From the Ridge

Broken Promises, Hidden by a Six-Foot Berm

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By Andrea Gaines On August 9, 1825 at the age of 69, French military officer the Marquis de Lafayette was honored in Leesburg by former President James Monroe. The French-born …

Around Virginia

Walbridge To Run for State Delegate in the 33rd District

Tia walbridge

Tia Walbridge announces her run for the District 33 seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. Walbridge is a wife and mother of two daughters and an active member of the Round Hill community. “Like many people in our district, my family has found its prosperity in a Virginia-based small …

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Office Building on Capitol Square To Be Named After Civil Rights Pioneer Barbara Johns

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Governor Terry McAuliffe announced that the newly renovated state building located at 202 N. 9th Street on Capitol Square in Richmond (currently known as the 9th Street Office Building) will bear the name of civil rights pioneer Barbara Johns. The building, which reopened last year, houses the Virginia Attorney General’s …

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Rep. Comstock’s Key Top Priority Legislation Initiatives

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Signed into Law in Her First Term Rep. Barbara Comstock, who serves the 10th congressional district in Virginia, recently reviewed the achievements of her first term in office, identifying 17 legislative initiatives that she supported that were adopted. She said: “My staff and I have met with stakeholders, local elected …

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Sports

WLVBC U14 Boys Finish 3rd at VA Beach Event

23 Feb 2017

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The Western Loudoun Volleyball Club’s U14 Boys Team garnered 3rd place in their first travel tournament of 2017, the Virginia Beach Invitational. This event was held Feb. 18-19 and featured more than 24 teams from the U14 to U18 age group. The team was second on their net on day …

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Woodgrove Gymnasts Advance To States

15 Feb 2017

gymnastics Snare

Two Woodgrove High School gymnasts have qualified to advance to the Virginia State Championships Saturday, February 18, at Patriot High School in Nokesville. Sophomore River Stone placed fourth in the all-around competition at the 1A-5A North Regional Gymnastics Championships at Park View High School on Wednesday, February 8, which earns …

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