“No credible climate scientist now doubts that humans have had an effect on Earth’s climate during the last two centuries, primarily by causing increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere.” William F. Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum, Princeton University Press, 2005.
“Growing evidence indicates that human activity is altering the climate in significant and potentially hazardous ways.” Tristan S. L’Ecuyer and Jonathan H. Jiang [1].
“We should see scientific and technological innovation as an important pillar and make greater effort to develop new industries of strategic importance. Science and technology is a powerful engine of economic growth . . . We will make China a country of innovation. . . We will accelerate the development of a low-carbon economy and green economy so as to gain an advantageous position in the international industrial competition.” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, World Economic Forum, September 10, 2009.
Tony Noerpel, December 1, 2010
By way of introduction to my readers, I’m a satellite communications engineer. Through most of my career, I’ve done research and development beginning in 1977 at Bell Telephone Laboratories. At Bell Labs I crossed paths with Nobel Laureates Arno Penzias and Robert Wilson. I shared an office with Ed Ohm who built the low noise receiver they used to measure the background radiation of the universe which proved the Big Bang Theory. I hold 32 US patents and have over 70 publications including peer-reviewed journal articles, conference papers and book chapters.
In my entire career, no senator, such as for example James Inhofe, declared that satellite communications was a hoax. No syndicated columnist, such as for example George Will, claimed that satellite engineers were wrong about the height of the geosynchronous satellite orbit. No neo-classical economist, such as for example William Nordhaus, presumed that economics determined satellite orbits instead of gravity. No extreme right wing and transparently partisan radio or FOX TV personality (these appear more numerous than stink bugs) claimed that satellite scientists were liars or communists. In short, in my field, engineers and scientists could go about our business without being libeled and contradicted by indignantly self-righteous ideologues.
On July 25, 1997, The Senate voted 95-0 in favor of the Byrd-Hagel Resolution keeping the United States out of the Kyoto Protocol process. During this time the extremist right wing media pontificated that our country was dominated by liberals overlooking the embarrassing fact that no liberal would have voted for such a disastrous and irresponsible resolution. It is literally true that there was not a single liberal in the Senate in 1997; not even one. I do not believe even a moderate would have voted to keep the United States out of the Kyoto process. In fact, no intelligent and well-informed conservative would have voted for the Byrd resolution. We, the people of the United States, were being lied to. Our government was in fact overrun by inadequately informed conservatives, notwithstanding that many of them were apparently not conservative enough. I felt the need to understand the science behind anthropogenic global warming theory not because I mistrusted it. That would have been ridiculous. Climate science is not my field. I mistrusted denialists and their corporate funders and I was curious to know how far from reality modern American conservatism had drifted and how much damage they were going to cause.
I understand Maxwell’s Electro-Magnetic Field Theory fairly well having invented antennas and guided wave devices. Radiation physics is an integral part of planetary climate physics since ultimately a planet’s climate is determined by the radiation budget at the boundary between the atmosphere and outer space. As Joseph Fourier showed in 1824, incoming short wave solar radiation must balance outgoing long wave heat radiation. So I understand one of the more difficult aspects of climatology. However, I am not a climate physicist and do not claim to be.
Therefore, I always accepted and respected the considered and educated opinion of the climate science community that anthropogenic global warming is a serious problem. If George Will, or Glen Beck or James Inhofe held the same level of foolish and ignorant opinion about satellite communications which they hold about global warming I would have hoped they would have been written off as extremist nuts. What was going wrong with our country when such irresponsible and unreliable people were given large soap boxes? I know at least two things. James Inhofe knows more about satellite communications than he knows about global warming and he doesn’t know a damned thing about satellite communications.
I began my study of climatology as any good engineer or scientist would by reading Earth science and climate physics text books. This is a necessary first step in order to understand the lingo of climate science. LGM is the Last Glacial Maximum and it occurred 20,000 years ago, predating the presumed creation of the Earth for some of us, I know. PETM is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum happening 55 million years ago. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is the amount the Earth would warm if atmospheric carbon dioxide were doubled including only fast feedbacks and after the climate had equilibrated. It helps to know these things if a person endeavors to read and understand the science. If you don’t know this stuff and are a global warming denier, then you must concede that you are not skeptical, but gullible.
A fellow engineer and I were working together on a state-of-the-art satellite system. At the end of one meeting, global warming came up in the conversation. He asked me “Do you believe in global warming?”
I replied “of course not, I understand it.” To which he rolled his eyes.
He told me he had seen just the other night on TV a scientist explain that the carbon dioxide we were putting in the atmosphere compared to something else (he wasn’t sure what) was actually quite a small amount and therefore global warming couldn’t possibly be happening. Humans could not possibly be having an impact. It was a killer argument, he said.
I said: “We have to design the waveform for this satellite project.” Are you going to channel surf tonight to see if you can find a television program that will tell us how to do it?”
“Of course not.”
“Then why would you watch TV to learn about climate physics? Why would you possibly think you were going to learn something useful? Why wouldn’t you do what you do for work and read the science?”
“Look, nobody has time for that.”
“I agree, which is why you should not be wasting time watching TV in the first place.“
I asked him if he knew the name of this presumed scientist. He did not. He didn’t know what kind of scientist the guy was nor actually if he even was a scientist. He did not remember the TV channel or when he saw it. And he could not recall the details of the argument. I pointed out to him that this was the difference between belief and understanding. He believed. I understood. He believed opinion from an unreliable source which he could not verify and I understood information from reliable sources which I had verified. He would rather “believe” some unknown charlatan than trust the science described by the entire climate science community.
Not having much information to go on, I drew a picture of the Earth’s carbon cycle on the white board in the conference room including flows between various Earth subsystems (from memory and based on the scientific publications of Kevin Trenberth and his colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research) clearly illustrating the human impact. I sent him references to the peer-reviewed science for verification when I got back to my office.
While studying climate physics I was introduced to a wide variety of scientific fields, which I previously never had the time to study: geology, paleontology, astrophysics, biology and so on. The point is that anthropogenic global warming is consistent with all of our accumulated knowledge in these other fields. No science threatens the consensus view of global warming so all of science is a wonderfully enticing open book. Denial of global warming is inconsistent with science. Therefore it is a closed book. Deniers are not curious people because self contradiction and cognitive dissonance lurk behind every tree and beneath every rock. Deniers are not skeptics. They are of necessity closed minded ideologues. Ideologies, whether free market capitalism or soviet central planning, are in the end the same thing differing only in detail. Ideologies substitute a belief system for critical thinking. Any ideology can make a fool out of anybody because all ideologies though useful over some period of time or in some place eventually fail when circumstances change.
Take free market ideologue Milton Friedman. He wrote in Capitalism and Freedom, published in 1962, that “the great advances of civilization, in industry or agriculture, have never come from centralized government,” five years after centrally planned Soviet Union launched Sputnik on October 4, 1957 [2]. On November 13, 1957, President Eisenhower said: “The Soviet Union now has – in the combined category of scientists and engineers – a greater number than the United States. And it is producing graduates in these fields at a much faster rate … This trend is disturbing. Indeed, according to my scientific advisers, this is for the American people the most critical problem of all. My scientific advisers place this problem above all other immediate tasks of producing missiles, of developing new techniques in the Armed Services. We need scientists in the ten years ahead…” [3].
The entire satellite communications industry came from two very different centralized governments, the Soviet Union and the United States and as a matter of fact the most centrally planned government beat us to it. This isn’t an endorsement of central planning. All ideologues are fair game and should be ridiculed. Reality is quite complicated and cannot be boiled down to a few rigid beliefs. While free market capitalism has considerable merit over soviet central planning it is clearly not the major cause of human technological advancement as both the Soviet Union and the United States independently developed nuclear weapons, nuclear power, space exploration, and spread their influences far beyond their extensive borders. The major cause was the discovery and exploitation of low entropy (basically energy, see [4]). The major cause for the collapse of the Soviet Union was the misallocation of captured low entropy to military expansion, their nuclear arsenal and the Afghanistan War. These are the same causes contributing to the current collapse of the United States economy.
Studying the science over several years convinced me that there is no science which supports global warming denial. I understand that most of us likely don’t have that kind of time. Fundamentally, trusting climate scientists is the same thing as trusting satellite engineers. Global warming is real and satellite communications works. You don’t have to take a dozen college courses in orbital mechanics in order to convince yourself that your satellite TV or satellite radio system will actually work. The science is the same. If the choice is between Ruddiman, sapient climate physicist, and Will, professional bloviate, then we go with sapience.
I can understand why the CEO of Exxon Mobil is not motivated to tell the truth about climate science. He has to because of his obligation to increase shareholder value. I’m a share holder and I understand this responsibility. The CEO of Exxon Mobil cannot support what is best for America or Americans if he perceives that it threatens profits in the next quarter.
But our representatives and senators have an obligation to us, to future generations and to the truth on which they have reneged. The main stream media in America have let us down to their shame. Jon Stewart makes the point that monkeys (politicians) throw feces. We accept this. It is when the zookeeper (the press) throws feces, too, that we get into trouble. In this regard it is worth noting that FOX News is more closely allied to the GOP than Pravda was to the Kremlin. We saw how well that worked for them.
In future articles, I will explain jut how serious our trouble is. Deniers have left us in a dangerous situation and we are running out of time. The 112th congress is the most clueless congress we have ever elected. Since they are all ideologues, it is just as easy to anticipate the sort of mayhem they will cause as it was to forecast back in 2000 that the Bush administration would cause the worst economic collapse since the great depression. I made that forecast and I was right.
If you want to learn more about the role of satellites in studying the Earth see [1].
[1] http://ptonline.aip.org/journals/doc/PHTOAD-ft/vol_63/iss_7/36_1.shtml?type=RSS&bypassSSO=1
[2] Oreskes and Conway, Merchants of Doubt, 2010.
[3] http://www.energy.gov/media/Chu_NationalPressClub112910.pdf
[4] Tony Noerpel, Entropy, http://brleader.com/?p=2025
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