To the Arctic: Amplified and Bayes Applied

November 27, 2013 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on To the Arctic: Amplified and Bayes Applied
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“In accordance with Bayes’ theorem, prediction is fundamentally a type of information-processing activity – a matter of using new data to test our hypotheses about the objective world, with the goal of coming to truer and more accurate conceptions about it.” Nate Silver

Forward

I like Nate Silver and I feel bad about criticizing his book “The Signal and the Noise”. But after reading his global warming chapter twice through I have to admit that he deserves the criticism. Without a doubt, when he writes about the physics of climate change for the most part he is spot on. And I applaud his effort to try to understand it. However, my critique is technically valid, no apologies there; Silver blew his Bayesian analysis. He missed a perfectly good opportunity to contribute to a reduction of the noise level of the discourse increasing it instead. This is exactly the goal of the fossil fuels industry. So long as there is lots of noise, nobody sees the signal. I sent a draft to Silver and asked for comments so he has had a chance to defend himself or do the mea culpa. He did not respond so my conscience is clear. The mistakes he makes in applying Bayesian analysis to the global warming problem include:

  • He uses false new data introducing misinformation, which has been comprehensively debunked. See ref [17].
  • He ignores true information.
  • He assumes that the climate system is memoryless.
  • He only applies the analysis to the IPCC consensus hypothesis and not to the myriad denier hypotheses.

… Continue Reading

Outside Gas Leak in Leesburg

November 25, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Outside Gas Leak in Leesburg
Leesburg

At approximately 7:30 a.m., Friday November 22, a construction vehicle working at the intersection of Sycolin Road and Tavistock Drive damaged a gas control valve operating a large diameter, pressurized gas line. Fire and Rescue units from Leesburg, Lansdowne and the Loudoun County Hazardous Materials Team responded to the scene. The leak resulted in the temporary closure of Sycolin Road between Battlefield Parkway and the Leesburg Airport while Washington Gas worked to mitigate the leak. Offices at 803 Sycolin Road were temporarily evacuated as a precaution and access to nearby properties was delayed.

The leak was contained and repairs performed by approximately 9:30 a.m. Sycolin Road was subsequently reopened to thru traffic and access to affected properties has been restored.

No injuries to civilian or fire-rescue personnel were reported.

Purcellville Police Blotter

November 25, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Purcellville Police Blotter
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11/15/13 – 9:27 p.m. – 1000 block of S. 20th St. – Narcotic Violations, Liquor Violation and Tobacco Violation – 3 juveniles were detained and later released to their parents.
11/17/13 – 12:30 p.m. – 400 block of Crosman Ct. – Nonviolent Family Dispute – Complaint worked by police and resolved.
11/17/13 – 6:51 p.m. – 17000 block of Strathallen Ct. – Nonviolent Family Dispute – Complaint worked by police and resolved.
11/18/13 – 10:58 p.m. – 200 block of Hackley Ct. – Nonviolent Family Dispute – Complaint worked by police and resolved.

Fire Marshal’s Office Lifts Open Burning Ban at Midnight Tonight

November 22, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Fire Marshal’s Office Lifts Open Burning Ban at Midnight Tonight
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Effective 12:00 a.m., Friday November 22, 2013, the Loudoun County Fire Marshal’s Office (FMO) is lifting the temporary open burning ban for Loudoun County as the fire danger level has dropped for the next several days. We will now be operating under the Fall/Winter Open Burning Guidelines through February 14, 2014 unless otherwise dictated by the Loudoun County FMO.

To determine the fire danger level, weather data from National Weather Service stations and local forestry offices is analyzed every morning. This analysis results in a predicted fire danger level and a class of day assigned. This may drive the need for a local burn ban to be enacted when the fire danger is high or a class three day. The fire danger level is predicted to be a class one up to a class two for the next several days; hence the local burn ban is being lifted.

For a detailed explanation of the Fall/Winter Open Burning Guidelines, visit www.loudoun.gov/firemarshal. For additional questions or information, please contact the Loudoun County Fire Marshal’s Office directly at 703-737-8600.

Round Hill Welcomes Holiday Season on December 7

November 22, 2013 News, Our Towns Comments Off on Round Hill Welcomes Holiday Season on December 7
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The Round Hill community will celebrate “Holidays in Round Hill” on Saturday, December 7, with an array of activities.

On Saturday afternoon, the Round Hill Arts Center will offer a special family ornament workshop from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. All ages are welcome; children under seven should have adult assistance. The workshop costs $25, which includes refreshments and all materials for four different ornaments. The Round Hill Arts Center is located in the Hill High Orchards complex on Route 7 just west of Round Hill. Register by calling 540-338-5022 or visiting www.roundhillartscenter.org. While at Hill High, be sure to visit the Country Store and the Gateway Gallery for unique locally produced gifts, and leave time to enjoy a glass of mulled wine by the fire at Bogati Bodega. … Continue Reading

Firefighters Collecting Toys for Tots

November 22, 2013 Loudoun County, News Comments Off on Firefighters Collecting Toys for Tots
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The Loudoun County Fire-Rescue System and the Loudoun Career Fire Fighters Association are participating in the 66th annual Toys for Tots Campaign, sponsored by the United Stated Marine Corps Reserve.

“The department is proud to once again participate in this wonderful program,” said Fire Chief W. Keith Brower, Jr. “Your generosity will help put smiles on the faces of sick or needy children this holiday season.”

The Toys for Tots Campaign began in 1947 when a group of U.S. Marine Reservists collected and distributed 5,000 toys to needy children in the Los Angeles area at Christmas. In 2010, Marines distributed toys to more than 7.2 million children. … Continue Reading

Announcing NLJC Loudoun Philanthropic Events and Annual Ball

November 20, 2013 Events, Lifestyle Comments Off on Announcing NLJC Loudoun Philanthropic Events and Annual Ball

The 3rd Annual Ball for The National League of Debutante Cotillions Loudoun Chapter will be held Friday Nov. 22 at Belmont Country Club as six young ladies, high school juniors and seniors, will be introduced to society. The Debutantes and their Marshalls, will demonstrate their figure presentation and Debutante Cotillion Waltz, choreographed by director Jean Ann Michie of Purcellville, for invited guests. The Debutantes, in their beautiful white formal gowns and gloves, will waltz to the music of the 15-piece Northern Lights Dance Orchestra.

According to Jean Ann Michie, Director of NLJC, “The Loudoun Debutante is a young lady who is gracious, poised, well groomed, and cultured. She is at the threshold of adulthood and uses this time in her life to refine, as well as define, herself. She is aware of all those around her, and puts her thoughts and good will into action. She chooses to be an influence for good and to offer gentility to a world that stands in great need.” … Continue Reading

Lovettsville Scouting for Food Drive 2013

November 20, 2013 Loudoun County, News Comments Off on Lovettsville Scouting for Food Drive 2013
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Cub Scouts and Girls Scouts Join Forces to Stock Western Loudoun Food Pantry With Over 2,000 Pounds of Food

Saturday, November 9, marked the culmination of two Saturdays each November when Lovettsville Cub Scout Pack 962 goes “Scouting For Food.” Each year, the Boy Scouts of America’s “Scouting for Food ” food drive raises many tons of food for food banks nationwide, and Lovettsville Pack 962 has a long history of supporting our area community through this grand tradition.

New this year, the Western Loudoun Food Pantry in Lovettsville was added as an official receiving location for Scouting For Food, so that all of the food collected in Lovettsville could return to help those in Lovettsville in need of assistance. Scouts turned out in force, joined by five Lovettsville Girl Scout Troops (1434, 4096, 4891, 6649, and 6652) to collect, weigh, sort, and shelve the food beginning at 9:00 a.m. Saturday morning. The scouts wrapped up their activities a little after 12:00 with the pantry well stocked with 2,083 pounds of food. … Continue Reading

Marching Royal Dukes Represent JMU in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade

November 20, 2013 Events, Lifestyle Comments Off on Marching Royal Dukes Represent JMU in Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade
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The 2013 Marching Royal Dukes of James Madison University will travel to New York City to perform in the 87th annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade ®. The band is slated to lead the parade when it kicks off at 9 a.m. The following students in your area will be performing with the Marching Royal Dukes in New York:

Justin Dennison of Middleburg, a sophomore majoring in music education plays in the band’s trumpet section. Dennison graduated from Loudoun Valley High School.

Cameron Helble of Round Hill, a majoring in plays in the band’s dukette section. Helble graduated from .

Abigail Moore of Purcelllville, a freshman majoring in accounting plays in the band’s guard section. Moore graduated from Loudoun valley high. … Continue Reading

Call for Artists

November 20, 2013 Events, Lifestyle Comments Off on Call for Artists

February 1 is Application Deadline for 2014 Western Loudoun Artists Studio Tour

Visual artists can apply online now for the 9th annual Western Loudoun Artists Studio Tour, scheduled for June 21-22, 2014. The application deadline is Saturday, February 1, 2014, no exceptions.

Artists working in all fine art media who create their work in Loudoun studios may apply to this juried event. Those selected will open their studios to the public for two full days, exposing their work to visitors from the metropolitan region. Last year’s tour brought over a thousand visitors into more than 30 studios, allowing artists to connect with a targeted audience, increasing their visibility and providing an opportunity to promote and sell their work. … Continue Reading

Sheriff’s Recent Personnel Moves Uncover Possible Embezzlement

November 20, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on Sheriff’s Recent Personnel Moves Uncover Possible Embezzlement
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The Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office is conducting an internal affairs investigation in conjunction with a Virginia State Police criminal investigation, into allegations of embezzlement in the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office. The investigation began in late October this year after a restructuring of LCSO personnel. The embezzlement allegations were uncovered immediately after Sheriff Chapman restructured units within the Criminal Investigations and Patrol Divisions. As soon as Sheriff Chapman was notified of the potential criminal activity, he contacted the Virginia State Police and requested that an independent investigation be conducted. As no criminal charges have yet been filed, the Sheriff’s Office cannot disclose the name or names of any LCSO employees under investigation. At this point, one employee has been placed on administrative leave. Any further criminal investigation announcements are expected to come from the Virginia State Police.

LCSO Joins Instagram to Reach out to Younger Audience

November 16, 2013 News, Public Safety Comments Off on LCSO Joins Instagram to Reach out to Younger Audience
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In an effort to further reach out to the community, the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office announced the agency is now on Instagram at www.instagram.com/loudounsheriff. The social media site will allow the agency to share pictures and video of featured cases and Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office events. “In an effort to reach out to all areas of the public, we wanted to further connect with the young adults in our community,” said Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman. “We believe Instagram is one social media platform that can help us make this connection,” he added. The Loudoun Sheriff’s Office currently utilizes several social media sites in an attempt to reach out to a wider audience. … Continue Reading

Restoring Hope

November 16, 2013 Faith, Lifestyle Comments Off on Restoring Hope
Tree of Life

By Mark Gunderman

Have you ever been depressed because of your finances? There’s a feeling of loneliness as well as one of being run over by a Mack truck. It’s not a good feeling. If that happens to you, don’t run away! Pick up the phone and get help. Financial matters are not rocket science; they just seem that way. There is a method to the madness of recovering from financial mayhem, no matter how bad you may think the situation has become. There is a proverb that states “Hope deferred makes the heart sick, but a longing fulfilled is a tree of life” (Proverbs 13:12). This verse states that if you stay stuck where you are without reaching out and talking to someone, you are “deferring hope.” However, once you pick up the phone and see what your options are, you bring “life” to the situation. … Continue Reading


 

 

 

 

 

Columns

The Holocene Climate

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(Public Input Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, 7 March, 2017) Figure 1 shows the climate variation over the last million years. The low points on the curve correspond to ice ages when glaciers up to a mile thick covered New …

Choosing To Forgive

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By Samuel Moore-Sobel “Truly forgiving is the ability to say, ‘Thank you for giving me that experience.’” James Arthur Ray vaulted into fame on the Oprah Winfrey Show back in the mid-2000’s. Stunned hearing these words while watching The Rise and …

Five Key Retirement Questions

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Beyond asking yourself where you see yourself and even what your lifelong goal are, effective retirement and longevity planning begs some very big questions. Review the points below and consider how housing, transportation and health considerations all play a role …

Work Woes

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By Michael Oberschneider, Psy.D. Dr. Mike, I’m a manager at a large tech company and my boss has directed me to fire someone on my team, but as a Christian, I just can’t do it. It’s true that the employee …

Joy or Suffering

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By Mary Rose Lunde No one likes to suffer. When given the chance, many people would choose to laugh rather than cry, to sit in silence with their friends rather than talk through their feelings, because not even their friends …

Wage Radio

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I will always remember – very fondly – the first time I ever set foot on the property at 711 Wage Drive Southwest in Leesburg, Virginia. It was a warm, sunny July morning in 1997, and I’d driven all the …

Speaking Truth to Power

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“With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed.” Abraham Lincoln On Thursday evening, February 23, I requested the Board of Supervisors pass a proclamation resolving to support the March for Science on Earth Day, April 22 [1]. …

Student News

Congratulations, Class of 2016

6 Jul 2016

grads_woodgrove

Woodgrove High School’s Class Of 2016 Graduation – By Amanda Clark On June 16, Woodgrove’s Class of 2016 was the 5th graduating class to walk the stage and accept their diploma. The ceremony was filled with anticipation as the chorus, …

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Buckland Earns Degree In Medicine

6 Jul 2016

buckland

Molly Buckland, D.O., graduated from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine with a degree of Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine on May 28. While at WVSOM, Dr. Buckland received the Dr. Roland P. Sharp President’s Award and the James R. …

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Adams Promoted To Lieutenant

6 Jul 2016

adamspromoted

Lt. James Adams, from Sterling and a Potomac Falls Halls Graduate, earned the promotion to the rank of Lieutenant. Adams is a Navy Week and Executive Outreach Planner for the Navy Office of Community Outreach in Millington, Tennessee. U.S. Navy …

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Calendar

March 2017
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
February 27, 2017 February 28, 2017 March 1, 2017 March 2, 2017 March 3, 2017

LAST HAM STANDING COMEDY IMPROV

LAST HAM STANDING COMEDY IMPROV
March 4, 2017

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event
March 5, 2017
March 6, 2017 March 7, 2017 March 8, 2017 March 9, 2017 March 10, 2017 March 11, 2017 March 12, 2017
March 13, 2017 March 14, 2017 March 15, 2017 March 16, 2017 March 17, 2017 March 18, 2017

Wine & Chili Weekend

Wine & Chili Weekend
March 19, 2017

Joshua Carr River Safety Foundation Rummage Sale

Joshua Carr River Safety Foundation Rummage Sale
March 20, 2017 March 21, 2017 March 22, 2017 March 23, 2017 March 24, 2017

March Fourth Friday

March Fourth Friday
March 25, 2017 March 26, 2017

Spring Brunch

Spring Brunch

Spring Brunch

Spring Brunch
March 27, 2017 March 28, 2017 March 29, 2017 March 30, 2017 March 31, 2017 April 1, 2017

”Homage to Mother Earth”

”Homage to Mother Earth”

Nebbiolo Vertical Tasting

Nebbiolo Vertical Tasting

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Old Time Country Ham and Turkey Dinner

Old Time Country Ham and Turkey Dinner
April 2, 2017

”Homage to Mother Earth”

”Homage to Mother Earth”

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Readers Theater, “One Slight Hitch”

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Readers Theater, “One Slight Hitch”
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Steady and NoBull

Lifestyle

Sterling Library Moving To New Location

25 Mar 2017

Library

Sterling Library’s current location, 120 Enterprise St., Sterling, will close beginning Saturday, March 25, to prepare for the opening of the new Sterling Library on Saturday, April 15. Patrons can return library materials using the drop box at the new location, 22330 S. Sterling Boulevard.

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Middleburg Gallery Presents Country Pursuits Exhibit

25 Mar 2017

Mr and Mrs Andrews 24x35 59 2016 whelan

The Gallery on Madison in Middleburg is presenting an exhibit of Brian Whelan’s (a London Irish painter now settled in Waterford) ) transcriptions of a gallery of paintings by Thomas Gainsborough, ‘Mr. and Mrs. Andrews’ through April 2. The exhibit includes 23 paintings, two masks, two graphics, and nine preparatory drawings.

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Loudoun Workforce Resource Center Presents STEM Career Fair March 28

16 Mar 2017

Illustration of STEM education word typography design in orange theme with icon ornament elements

Anyone interested in a career in the rapidly growing field of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) is encouraged to attend an upcoming STEM Career Fair in Loudoun. The Loudoun Workforce Resource Center, in partnership with Northern Virginia Community College (NVCC)’s Loudoun campus and NOVA SySTEMic Solutions, is holding a STEM Career Fair Tuesday, March 28, from 1:00 to 4:00 …

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Editorial

Priscilla Nabs Plum Planning Commission Post

Loudoun County Seal Color

Appointment Shocks Many On January 3 Supervisor Tony R. Buffington Jr. (R-Blue Ridge) nominated Tom Priscilla for the Loudoun County Planning Commission to represent the Blue Ridge District. Priscilla was …

Op-ed

Opinion: Terrorism, Debt, and China: Oh My!

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– By Nick Reid world can be a very dangerous place sometimes, especially for a nation state such as the United States. Although danger is always present, the number and …

Metro Money Mess Pushing West

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– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33rd) A local paper recently quoted Loudoun Board Chair Phyllis Randall as saying that in her observation “some of the concerns raised by the people …

Dear Editor

Why Williams Gap Road Should Not Be Paved

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Today, most residents of Loudoun County know nothing about Williams Gap, even those living on Williams Gap Road (Route 711). Knowing who “Williams” was, why a gap in the Blue …

Vote No To the Minor Special Exception

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We are a group of Loudoun County citizens who will be adversely affected if the board grants a special exception for the Catesby Farm property at your upcoming meeting. You …

View From the Ridge

Broken Promises, Hidden by a Six-Foot Berm

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By Andrea Gaines On August 9, 1825 at the age of 69, French military officer the Marquis de Lafayette was honored in Leesburg by former President James Monroe. The French-born …

Around Virginia

Virginia Schools Kick Off Statewide Campaign To Encourage Safe Teen Driving

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More teen drivers in Virginia will be involved in traffic crashes between the months of May and August than any other time of the year, statistics show. To help save lives and prevent such crashes during the high-risk warm weather months, Virginia schools are kicking off a statewide teen safety …

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Protecting Free Speech

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By Dave LaRock (R-33) As elected officials and members of the legislature, our most fundamental responsibility is to protect God-given constitutionally protected rights. The First Amendment of the United States Constitution prohibits the government, including governmental public colleges and universities, from infringing on free speech and the free exercise of …

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Walbridge To Run for State Delegate in the 33rd District

Tia walbridge

Tia Walbridge announces her run for the District 33 seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. Walbridge is a wife and mother of two daughters and an active member of the Round Hill community. “Like many people in our district, my family has found its prosperity in a Virginia-based small …

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Sports

Vikings Runner-Up at the State Championship 

8 Mar 2017

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The Loudoun Valley Vikings are the boy’s runner-up at the VHSL 4A State Indoor Track and Field Championships at Roanoke College.  During the 2015-2016 school year, the Loudoun County School Board approved Indoor Track and Field as a Tier 2 (self-funded) sport.  The seven boys competing scored 48 points, second …

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WLVBC U14 Boys Finish 3rd at VA Beach Event

23 Feb 2017

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The Western Loudoun Volleyball Club’s U14 Boys Team garnered 3rd place in their first travel tournament of 2017, the Virginia Beach Invitational. This event was held Feb. 18-19 and featured more than 24 teams from the U14 to U18 age group. The team was second on their net on day …

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