By Carl Fischer
It’s been a long, hot summer so far (hottest June on record for us), and the residential market is truly reflecting the “dog days” of summer.
The mid-Atlantic MRIS system indicates that year over year (2010 vs 2011) the market is off 15.77 percent. Northern Virginia is off 11.27 percent, but Loudoun County only lags last year by 2.3 percent. Things could be worse.
So if you have any doubts about where the market is trending, base your real estate decisions on the reality you are facing right now.
Our area enjoys the best circumstances of any jurisdiction in the Baltimore-Washington market, but is it is still not a rosy outlook as we drift towards the end of 2011.
Wells Fargo, one of the largest lenders in the country, recently invited me, and a number of top real estate professionals from this area to attend a two-hour presentation at the River Creek Country Club, where they laid out a careful analysis of the residential market nationally, as well as locally. And their view was sobering to even the most seasoned agent in attendance.
For me, they provided a much better sense of the magnitude of the oft-mentioned “shadow inventory” (houses which have non-performing loans, but as yet, have not been included in the foreclosure process for a variety of reasons). Just know that this accumulation of properties will continue to counter-balance any likelihood of price point increase in the next 12-18 months, thereby assuring that present price levels will likely not rise during that period.
Bottom line: make your buy, sell, or hold decision based on today’s reality. And augment your own beliefs and understanding of the market dynamics by utilizing the services or an arms-length 3rd party professional… your experienced, locally knowledgeable real estate agent.
Carl Fischer has lived in Loudoun since 1969. Fomerly in residential construction management and land development, he’s been in real estate sales since 1989.