Home » Columns » Currently Reading:

Local Housing “Trends” Are Still Very Fragile

June 6, 2012 by Blue Ridge Leader filed under Columns No Comments
Carl Fischer headshot

By Carl Fischer

For some time now, I have reported specific observations that have lead me to believe that our local residential housing market is “bottoming out”. And I have no reason at present to believe that trend in not continuing. But every erratic day on the S&P or DOW sends reverberations down my spine. And it drives buyers back into a fetal position bracing themselves for “what comes next”.

It’s not that a majority of our neighbors are necessarily heavily invested in the the stock market, but I think a very high percentage see these indicators as bellwethers for a larger trend in the regional and national economy. And we’ve all been so numbed by this seemingly endless “Great Recession”, that any observation whatever of present uncertainty feels like an aftershock to a bad earthquake, amplified by our worst fears.

And that perception breeds paralysis in our willingness to make any changes whatever of an economic nature. So buying or selling of real estate, for the moment, seems unwise.

The present facts don’t necessarily support those feelings, but most of us act on instinct more than facts.

One fact is: mortgage rates continue to decline. Just when you thought rates could not possibly go lower, we learn that they not only can; they do. On May 31, 2012, Bankrate Inc reported: This week brought yet another record low in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to the record low of 3.94 percent according to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.46 discount and origination points.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate inched lower to a new record of 3.15 percent as did the jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage, sliding to the record low of 4.50 percent. Adjustable mortgage rates were both lower, as well this week, with the average 3-year adjustable dropping to 3.08 percent, while the popular 5-year ARM dipped lower to 3.01 percent.

The last time mortgage rates were above 6 percent was Nov. 2008. At the time, the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.33 percent, meaning a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,241.86. With the average rate now 3.97 percent, the monthly payment for the same size loan would be $947.93, a difference of $294 per month for anyone refinancing now. (see www.yahoo.com for mortgage rates)

At a closing I attended a few days ago, my client remarked that since his rate lock two months ago on a below-four percent 30-year fixed loan, the rate had “floated down” yet another .02 percent, making his net interest payment seem too low to be real. It’s hard for me to overstate the incredible value to the consumer of such a low interest rate over the life of the loan.

And yet, there are still those too uncertain of the future to feel comfortable taking advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to own a home at these historic low rates.

Another “flag” worth noting: residential building lots are now selling again

It has been nearly five years since I have witnessed ongoing lot sales in our area. Yet in the past three months, I have not only seen lookers, buth there have been actual closings that “made it to the table.”

When this phenomena began, I couldn’t help but wonder why; it was economically far more practical to buy a standing house at these unprecedented low prices than it was to buy a lot and build.

But week after week as I pounded the pavement with prospective home-buyers looking for the “perfect house”, it became abundantly clear: there were just very few under-$500,000 homes still left on the market right now. So what I’m hearing from those looking for lots right now is: “I can’t find what I want, so I’m just going to have to build….”

One high point for me this past month, was to complete a transaction for a very worthwhile organization out of Taunton, ME called “Homes For Our Troops” (www.homesforourtroops.org). They purchased a lot near Round Hill, and are building a home for a young soldier who is a double-amputee…. I heartily recommend that you go to their website and learn more about this proactive group dedicated to supporting our wounded soldiers.

Western Loudoun County is still the best place in the world to call home!

Carl Fischer is the Broker/Owner of United Country Real Estate, specializing in commercial, investment, and selected residential properties, as well as Northern Neck of Virginia waterfront homes. He is licensed in Virginia and West Virginia, and is a member of the Dulles Area Association of Realtor (DAAR) as well as the Northern Neck Association of Realtors (NNAR). To contact Carl, e-mail him at carl@uc-nova.com.

Comment on this article


By commenting, you agree to abide by our Terms of Service.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Columns

The Company We Keep

noerpel_new

“Truly important and significant hypotheses will be found to have assumptions that are wildly inaccurate descriptive representations of reality and, in general, the more significant the theory, the more unrealistic the assumptions.” – Milton Freidman [1] “I am increasingly convinced …

What Happens To My Stuff When I Die?

Smith0035

Amy and Dan Smith Only in the rarest of circumstances will the state receive the property of a decedent. Joint tenancy. If you hold property jointly with another person “with survivorship,” it is presumed that the survivor is entitled to …

Integrated Scientific Discovery

Lunde new

By Mary Rose Lunde Many suggest that science is the gateway to the future. The rise in scientific discovery has driven more and more funding for research. The fact of the matter is, however, that science is far more complex …

A Man on the Move: Supervisor Ralph Buona, Vice Chairman Board of Supervisors

Supervisor Ralph Buona

By Samuel Moore-Sobel I first met Ralph Buona when I was a senior in high school. A “Youth in Government” day event allowed us to meet with our local supervisors. Chosen to sit next to the supervisor for my district, …

Dulles Air and Space Museum

airplane Dulles

You ever have those dreams, that (back – probably when you were a kid) you could fly? Not in any kind of man-made craft, mind you – I mean possessing the ability to levitate and travel the skies at will. …

New Book Helps Balance Children’s Screen-Time and Play Time

drmikenewpic

By Amanda Clark Michael Oberschneider, a clinical psychologist and founder/director of Ashburn Psychological Psychiatric Services, has just released a book titled Ollie Outside. This book addresses the very timely and important topic of screen- and media-time management for children. Ollie …

Defending the Over-Pampered

noerpel_new

“The purpose of studying economics is to learn how not to be deceived by economists.” Joan Robinson, Professor of economics at Cambridge University, Basel Lecture, 1969. “[W]hereas classisists [economists] turned the spotlight on change, flow, process and dynamics, the neoclassicists …

Student News

Congratulations, Class of 2016

6 Jul 2016

grads_woodgrove

Woodgrove High School’s Class Of 2016 Graduation – By Amanda Clark On June 16, Woodgrove’s Class of 2016 was the 5th graduating class to walk the stage and accept their diploma. The ceremony was filled with anticipation as the chorus, …

(Be the first to comment)

Buckland Earns Degree In Medicine

6 Jul 2016

buckland

Molly Buckland, D.O., graduated from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine with a degree of Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine on May 28. While at WVSOM, Dr. Buckland received the Dr. Roland P. Sharp President’s Award and the James R. …

(Be the first to comment)

Adams Promoted To Lieutenant

6 Jul 2016

adamspromoted

Lt. James Adams, from Sterling and a Potomac Falls Halls Graduate, earned the promotion to the rank of Lieutenant. Adams is a Navy Week and Executive Outreach Planner for the Navy Office of Community Outreach in Millington, Tennessee. U.S. Navy …

(Be the first to comment)

Calendar

September 2016
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
August 29, 2016

Hot & Cool featuring glass artists Dave & Dale Barnes and abstract painter Kay Layne

August 30, 2016

Hot & Cool featuring glass artists Dave & Dale Barnes and abstract painter Kay Layne

August 31, 2016

Hot & Cool featuring glass artists Dave & Dale Barnes and abstract painter Kay Layne

September 1, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 2, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 3, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

Dear Creek Live at North Gate Vineyard

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

Snaggy Mountain Boys

September 4, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 5, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 6, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 7, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 8, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 9, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 10, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

A PLACE TO BE: A THOUSAND STEPS

September 11, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

Silk Scarf Painting with Penny

ART IN THE PARK

September 12, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 13, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 14, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 15, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 16, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 17, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 18, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

Artist Reception - Penny Hauffe

September 19, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 20, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 21, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

BLUE SKY PUPPETS: BARKER OF SEVILLE

September 22, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 23, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 24, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

UNIVERSAL DESIGN FOR LEARNING WORKSHOP

FOBR Annual Meeting

5th Annual Leesburg Fine Art Festival

September 25, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

5th Annual Leesburg Fine Art Festival

Music With A Cause - Pas de Deux

Gallery Coffeehouse: The Comedy Cult Improv

September 26, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 27, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 28, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 29, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

September 30, 2016

Dreams of Trees and Other Living Things

October 1, 2016

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

October 2, 2016
Current Print Issue:
Sign up for our email newsletter:

Recent Comments

Steady and NoBull

Lifestyle

Skate ‘Til Midnight at the Catoctin SkatePark Closing Party

23 Sep 2016

Leesburg01

Catoctin SkatePark will host a late night skate on Sunday, September 25, 2016, from 7:00 p.m. to midnight, before closing for construction. Enjoy one last ride at the original Catoction SkatePark! Construction of the new concrete skate park will begin in early October, but before the old skate park closes, you can celebrate the end of an era. On Sunday, …

(Be the first to comment)

Middleburg Film Festival Announces “La La Land” As Its 2016 Centerpiece Film

20 Sep 2016

LLL d 41-42_6689.NEF

The Middleburg Film Festival announced the highly anticipated film La La Land as its 2016 Centerpiece selection. La La Land, starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, will screen on Saturday, October 22 with Oscar-nominated director Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) in attendance. The Festival runs October 20 through October 23.

(Be the first to comment)

Sterling Apple Festival To Be Held September 24 and 25

16 Sep 2016

apples

The Loudoun Heritage Farm Museum will be hosting the 12th annual Autumn Apple Festival on Saturday, September 24, from 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. and on Sunday, September 25, from 11:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. The event will be held off Route 28 and Route 7 in Claude Moore Park in Sterling.

(Be the first to comment)

Editorial

Grief and Greed

blueridge2

By Matthew Parse What would drive a single individual to cause so much emotional stress and financial burden on hundreds, if not, thousands of families? What would drive the Town …

Op-ed

Opinion: Terrorism, Debt, and China: Oh My!

blueridge2.jpg

– By Nick Reid world can be a very dangerous place sometimes, especially for a nation state such as the United States. Although danger is always present, the number and …

Metro Money Mess Pushing West

blueridge2.jpg

– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33rd) A local paper recently quoted Loudoun Board Chair Phyllis Randall as saying that in her observation “some of the concerns raised by the people …

Dear Editor

Comstock Understands National Security

Candidate Geary with wife

On 9-11, I attended three ceremonies throughout Loudoun County honoring and remembering those 2,977 souls that we lost on that day of infamy. Our Congresswoman, Barbara Comstock was also there …

Lessons from Short Hill

shorthillmeeting

It’s been a little over two weeks since the Commission Permit for the proposed AT&T facility on Short Hill was overruled by the Board of Supervisors. This is just about …

View From the Ridge

An Open Letter to the Citizens of Purcellville

blueridge2

Mark Your Calendar, They’ve Asked for Our Input So Let’s Give It To Them By Steady and Nobull The Purcellville Planning Commission has tentatively scheduled a series of public input …

Around Virginia

History’s Holy Places: Four Local Sites Worth Exploring This Fall

outandaboutloudoun

The Journey through Hallowed Ground is a 180-mile long, 75-mile wide trek from Gettysburg to Monticello, encompassing nine presidential homes and places, 18 national and state parks, and thousands of small and large historical sites. Dozens and dozens of these sites and related museums are short ride from just about …

(Be the first to comment)

Land Trust Receives Large Donation

land trust

On August 22, The Land Trust of Virginia received a $10,000 gift from the Sharon D. Virts Foundation, based in Herndon. The presentation of this grant was part of the Foundation’s official launch event, held at Selma Plantation in Leesburg. Notable speakers included Sharon D. Virts, FCiFederal Founder and Chair, …

(Be the first to comment)

Farmers Urged To Be On The Lookout For Marijuana

marijuana

Farmers in Southwest Virginia are being urged to check their property for marijuana planted by trespassers. Within the past year, hundreds of marijuana plants have been discovered between rows of hay bales on farms in and around Pulaski County, according to the Claytor Lake Regional Drug Task Force. “Unfortunately this …

(Be the first to comment)

Sports

Hunter’s First Professional Race

7 Sep 2016

hunterrace

Drew Hunter and Loudoun Valley classmates at his first professional race, Sir Walter Miler in Raleigh, NC in early August , l to r:  Marcos Pierce, Matt Slook, Drew Hunter, Max McNerney. Hunter finished with a time of 3:57.15. Hunter turned professional and signed with Adidas.

(Be the first to comment)

Let’s Make Some Memories

3 Aug 2016

baseball

American Legion Baseball At Fireman’s Field, August 3 – 7 By Andrea Gaines American Legion Baseball is here at Fireman’s Field in a big way, featuring five consecutive blockbuster Mid-Atlantic Tournament games – August 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Our local Leesburg Post 34 Rangers had some nice wins …

(Be the first to comment)

Archives

  • +2016
  • +2015
  • +2014
  • +2013
  • +2012
  • +2011
  • +2010
  • +2009