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Superforecasting a Book Review

noerpel_new

The book “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner contains a nearly complete list of the attributes of superforecasting, as well as critical thinking. Tetlock’s research empirically confirms the aspects of critical thinking I’ve been discussing in this column. Their methodology describes, more or less, how a good engineer or scientist thinks and more or less captures the scientific method as it has evolved since the fourteenth century, if we are willing to substitute the author’s scoring feedback for peer-review. It is a great book selection for a book club both for what the authors discuss as well as for the potential for future research. … Continue Reading

Pokémon GO: A Fun New Gaming App or an Accidental Treatment?

Michael_Pic

Penicillin was accidently discovered in 1928 when scientist Alexander Fleming returned to his lab from vacation to notice that a strange fungus growing on a culture had killed off the neighboring bacteria. After WWII, psychiatrist and researcher, Dr. John Cade, also accidently discovered the extremely positive affects of lithium for mood disturbances that revolutionized the treatment for what we now know as Bipolar Disorder. Some of the other amazing medical discoveries that were found by accident include, Nitrous Oxide, the Pap Smear, the Pace Maker and even Viagra. … Continue Reading

Human Fingerprints on Climate Change

noerpel_new

Presented to the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors – June 23, 2016

Recently I was asked whether humanity’s fossil fuel use was the cause of the current global warming. This is a good question and I’m not surprised that there is some confusion and indeed acknowledging that the Earth surface is warming leads inevitably to this question.

The answer is yes we are the cause of 100% of the global warming taking place since 1970. For example, solar radiation has been trending lower as shown in Figure 1. … Continue Reading

Sugar Crash

June 1, 2016 Columns, Mary Rose Lunde Comments Off on Sugar Crash
Lunde new

Sugar runs inside our body and fuels our very being. In biology they teach us that sugar is really glucose which is broken down in the body to produce ATP (adenine tri-phosphate). So why bring this up? Well, sugar is vital to our bodies, so why do doctors, dietitians, and many people view sugar as bad if it’s vital to our bodies? Well, it is because sugar is a generalized category. … Continue Reading

The Art of Memory

June 1, 2016 Columns, Samuel Moore-Sobel Comments Off on The Art of Memory
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By Samuel Moore-Sobel

Still Alice. A movie that not only elicits tears, but naturally incurs reflection. This heartrending movie was the starting point of a personal wrestling with the implications of human memory. Remembering can bring us back to a moment of sheer happiness, or a time of intense pain. Over time memories may fade. Yet the effect that memory has on our lives is unmistakable. Reminiscing reminds us of who we are, allowing us to linger for albeit a few moments with the parts of ourselves that may have been lost along the way. … Continue Reading

Living in Debt

June 1, 2016 Ask Dr. Mike, Columns Comments Off on Living in Debt
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Dr. Mike,
My husband has issues with money that are hurting our relationship and family. He makes a lot of money, but he spends more than he makes and we are in debt. He can’t just have a luxury car, oh no, he has to have the newest and nicest one in the neighborhood. He can’t just have any old golf club membership, he has to have the most expensive one that oh, by the way he only goes to about 10 times a year. His bonus last year was his highest of all time but he spent it before the check even cleared the bank. We have no savings to our name, tons of credit card debt and spoiled kids, but every time I bring our finances up to him he tells me that he “works hard” or he “deserves it” or “chill out” and I “worry too much.” I love him to death but can’t keep living like this. Got a few ideas for us?
Concerned in Loudoun
… Continue Reading

Do It Yourself Legal Products Bargain or Trap?

June 1, 2016 Amy and Dan Smith, Columns Comments Off on Do It Yourself Legal Products Bargain or Trap?
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The proliferation of online vendors offering legal documents and services for fixed fees is causing a real stir in the legal community. On the one hand there can be no question that the pricing of legal services puts personalized legal counsel out of reach for many people. On the other hand, most legal problems do not lend themselves to over-the-counter solutions.

The North Carolina State Bar Association tried to close down LegalZoom charging it with the unauthorized practice of law. A court order reversed the action. In the meantime, Rocket Lawyer, a competitor to LegalZoom, is teaming with the American Bar Association to offer legal advice to small businesses. The Virginia State Bar is carefully reviewing the situation in Virginia. … Continue Reading

A Habitable Planet

May 16, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on A Habitable Planet
habitable_2

“At the moments when we are able to separate ourselves from our daily concerns and ponder deeply, most of us have encountered fundamental questions of our existence as human beings. Where do we come from? What happened before humans appeared on Earth? Where do the stars come from? Do we have a place in planetary evolution? Are there others like us out there somewhere?” Wally Broecker and Charles Langmuir [1]

This series of articles is based on a talk I gave at REHAU in Leesburg on April 28, 2016. … Continue Reading

Choose Joy, Don’t Go Negative

May 4, 2016 Columns, Mary Rose Lunde Comments Off on Choose Joy, Don’t Go Negative
Lunde new

Sometimes life is pleasant and it is easy to smile, other times it is not. The real question is how do you react and live your life when you are going through trials? What do you do when you feel like the end of the world is upon you? It’s simple real, you react and live your life.

It’s a sad fact how many people choose to live their life in the negative when they could live life and chose joy. I’m not saying that you shouldn’t feel sadness or shouldn’t ask for help when you need it. No, I’m saying that for the minor setbacks in life, you should choose joy instead of letting the small things dictate the way your life. … Continue Reading

Character Outlives Us All

May 4, 2016 Columns, Samuel Moore-Sobel Comments Off on Character Outlives Us All
moore-sobelnewmug

“Brains are like muscles, you can rent them by the hour, but at the end of the day all you have left is your character.” This statement was uttered by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, a phrase his father used to tell him when he was a child. This past February, at the age of 79, Antonin Scalia met what can only be termed an untimely demise. Sadly, the aftermath of this man’s death quickly turned into a political circus. Two months ago, the Republican presidential candidates began debating whether or not President Obama should be allowed to select a nominee to fill the seat seemingly moments after Scalia’s passing. The past few weeks in Washington have been consumed with the battle over the President’s nomination of Merrick Garland. Life must go on, but Antonin Scalia rightly deserves more than a mere moment of reflection.
… Continue Reading

Foxridge Park

May 4, 2016 Columns, Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth Comments Off on Foxridge Park
Just Like Nothing (Else) On Earth- Foxridge Park-1

You know, I can still taste those sausages: The first early-spring bratwurst cooked over an open flame in a beautiful setting among good friends; nothing so surprising, really, in recalling a good meal in classic context. The thing is, though – I was propelled back more decades than I care to admit – and transported roughly a thousand miles across our nation – back to the banks of the Mississippi River. Good grilling can do that to you. … Continue Reading

Planning for Life Disclosure and Other Family Issues in Estate Planning

May 4, 2016 Amy and Dan Smith, Columns Comments Off on Planning for Life Disclosure and Other Family Issues in Estate Planning
Smith0035

What do we tell the kids?

Questions of how much and what type of information to give the children often arise during consultation. The answers depend on the circumstances of each family – the ages and maturity of the children being the most obvious factors. As a general rule the ideal is to advise the children as to the extent and nature of the parents’ assets and plans. This can lead to a smoother transition to the next generation.

Issues of entitlement, sibling rivalry (where there is more than one child involved), and perceptions of fair-ness may naturally surface with regard to the parents’ estate. Feelings may be particularly acute where one child has provided more care and attention to a parent than the other children, as is often the case. … Continue Reading

A Look Into What Is Learned in High School English

April 6, 2016 Columns, Mary Rose Lunde Comments Off on A Look Into What Is Learned in High School English
Lunde new

By Mary Rose Lunde

English is the arguably the most important subject for a student in high school to learn. The most successful people in the world have one thing in common — being able to communicate effectively. This is what English teaches. Learning how to use the language effective helps students develop their unique perspective on the world. … Continue Reading


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Columns

Superforecasting a Book Review

noerpel_new

The book “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner contains a nearly complete list of the attributes of superforecasting, as well as critical thinking. Tetlock’s research empirically confirms the aspects of critical thinking I’ve been discussing in this column. Their …

Pokémon GO: A Fun New Gaming App or an Accidental Treatment?

Michael_Pic

Penicillin was accidently discovered in 1928 when scientist Alexander Fleming returned to his lab from vacation to notice that a strange fungus growing on a culture had killed off the neighboring bacteria. After WWII, psychiatrist and researcher, Dr. John Cade, …

Brotherly Love

moore-sobelnewmug

– By Samuel Moore-Sobel There he was. A small, innocent being entering the world for the very first time. Can I touch him? Nervously, I lean forward. He seems so perfect, so completely serene. He is loved instantly. The last …

To The Teen Who Feels Alone

Lunde new

– By Mary Rose Lunde I’m going to do something real here and be honest for a second. In a society where telling someone your deep emotional feelings is considered weak, doing just that seems to be detrimental and could …

Unmotivated Teen

Michael_Pic

– By Michael Oberschneider, Psy.D. Dr. Mike, At our insistence, our 17-year-old son is going to get a summer job. Well, that’s what he agreed to, but we are two weeks into the summer and guess what … he doesn’t …

Time To Add Discipline To Your Good Money Habits

Smith0035

– By Amy and Dan Smith For many, their 30’s is a time to build a family and a stronger financial future That 30th birthday can be a somewhat traumatic event, but with people living longer, they say 50 is …

Student News

Congratulations, Class of 2016

6 Jul 2016

grads_woodgrove

Woodgrove High School’s Class Of 2016 Graduation – By Amanda Clark On June 16, Woodgrove’s Class of 2016 was the 5th graduating class to walk the stage and accept their diploma. The ceremony was filled with anticipation as the chorus, …

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Buckland Earns Degree In Medicine

6 Jul 2016

buckland

Molly Buckland, D.O., graduated from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine with a degree of Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine on May 28. While at WVSOM, Dr. Buckland received the Dr. Roland P. Sharp President’s Award and the James R. …

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Adams Promoted To Lieutenant

6 Jul 2016

adamspromoted

Lt. James Adams, from Sterling and a Potomac Falls Halls Graduate, earned the promotion to the rank of Lieutenant. Adams is a Navy Week and Executive Outreach Planner for the Navy Office of Community Outreach in Millington, Tennessee. U.S. Navy …

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Calendar

July 2016
M T W T F S S
27

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

It’s a Beach Thing . . . featuring lamp-work glass artist Julie Bahun and abstract painter Karen Hutchison

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

It’s a Beach Thing . . . featuring lamp-work glass artist Julie Bahun and abstract painter Karen Hutchison

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

It’s a Beach Thing . . . featuring lamp-work glass artist Julie Bahun and abstract painter Karen Hutchison

30

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

It’s a Beach Thing . . . featuring lamp-work glass artist Julie Bahun and abstract painter Karen Hutchison

1

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

TGIF - Jake & the Burtones

2

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

Ken Wenzel Live at North Gate Vineyard

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

4

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

Yard Sale Benefiting EPIC

10

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

Moon Music Live at North Gate Vineyard

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

12

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

Dear Creek Live at North Gate Vineyard

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

Quentin Walston Live at North Gate Vineyard

18

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

19

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

Paint Your Pint

20

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

31

Bingo at St. Francis de Sale Catholic Church

Dancing Through Color

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Lifestyle

Farmers Urged To Be on the Lookout for Marijuana

23 Jul 2016

blueridge

Farmers in Southwest Virginia are being urged to check their property for marijuana planted by trespassers. Within the past year, hundreds of marijuana plants have been discovered between rows of hay bales on farms in and around Pulaski County, according to the Claytor Lake Regional Drug Task Force. “Unfortunately this is a growing trend,” said Corporal Barbara Owens of the …

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Bluemont Harvest Ball To Be Held on September 17 in Warrenton

20 Jul 2016

blueridge

To commemorate the organization’s 40th Anniversary, Bluemont has announces the first ever Bluemont Harvest Ball, to be held on September 17 from 6:30 pm to 11:00 p.m. on Main Street in downtown Warrantor. This black tie event will feature live music from the Silver Tones Swing Band, dancing, a four-course, seated dinner, an open bar, and a silent auction. Tickets …

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What Do You Do To Stay Cool?

7 Jul 2016

ice-cubes

– By Amanda Clark “To chill out this summer I will spend a lot of my time playing music. During the summer, I have so much free time and I devote as much of it as I can to playing music.” – Michael Preston (Lovettsville) “To chill out this summer I will go to a friend’s house and borrow their …

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Editorial

Grief and Greed

blueridge2

By Matthew Parse What would drive a single individual to cause so much emotional stress and financial burden on hundreds, if not, thousands of families? What would drive the Town …

Op-ed

Opinion: Terrorism, Debt, and China: Oh My!

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– By Nick Reid world can be a very dangerous place sometimes, especially for a nation state such as the United States. Although danger is always present, the number and …

Metro Money Mess Pushing West

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– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33rd) A local paper recently quoted Loudoun Board Chair Phyllis Randall as saying that in her observation “some of the concerns raised by the people …

Dear Editor

Lessons from Short Hill

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It’s been a little over two weeks since the Commission Permit for the proposed AT&T facility on Short Hill was overruled by the Board of Supervisors. This is just about …

Thank You

speak

Dear Citizens of Purcellville: As your town council member it is my vision and priority that you feel welcome at your Town Hall and take part in shaping Purcellville’s future …

View From the Ridge

An Open Letter to the Citizens of Purcellville

blueridge2

Mark Your Calendar, They’ve Asked for Our Input So Let’s Give It To Them By Steady and Nobull The Purcellville Planning Commission has tentatively scheduled a series of public input …

Around Virginia

Blood Donors Asked To Help Address Summer Shortage

blueridge

Virginia Blood Services is urging Virginians to help replenish an extremely low summer blood supply and asking eligible donors to visit any one of its area Community Donor Centers or mobile blood drives. “Summer is always a challenging time for blood collections,” says Virginia Blood Services Executive Director, Todd Cahill. …

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McAuliffe Announces New Exports for Virginia Lumber Companies To the United Kingdom

McAuliffe

Governor Terry McAuliffe announced new export sales of Virginia wood products to the United Kingdom (U.K.) during a trade and marketing mission to Israel and the U.K. The sales were struck between four Virginia lumber companies and James Latham PLC, one of the oldest and largest wood importers and distributors …

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Governor McAuliffe Announces 105 New Jobs in the Town of Berryville and Clarke County

McAuliffe

Handsome Brook Farm, LLC to Invest More Than $6 Million to Establish Egg Processing Operation in Virginia RICHMOND – Governor Terry McAuliffe today announced that New York-based Handsome Brook Farm, LLC will invest $6.4 million to establish a new pasture raised egg processing operation in the Town of Berryville and …

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Sports

Registration Open For Ida Lee’s Fall NFL Flag Football

7 Jul 2016

NFL_Flag_Football_at_IdaLee

Ida Lee’s Fall 2016 NFL Flag Football League will begin with player evaluations on Saturday and Sunday, July 30 and 31.  Players must be registered by Tuesday, July 26, to participate. This fall, Ida Lee’s Leesburg NFL Flag Football House League will have the following age groups:  6-7; 8-9; 10-11; …

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Everyone’s Getting Into Cannons Action!

6 Jul 2016

cannons

Purcellville Cannons? Baseball July Schedule July 9, 7 p.m. at home Covington? July 12, 7 p.m. away Winchester? July 13, 7:30 p.m. Harrisonburg? July 14, 7 p.m. at home Strasburg? July 15, 7 p.m. at home Woodstock? July 16, 7 p.m. away Front Royal? July 17, 7 p.m. at home …

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