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2016 in the Books

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(Presented to the Board of Supervisors February, 2017)

“The last three years have demonstrated abundantly clearly that there is no change in the long-term trends since 1998. A prediction from 1997 merely continuing the linear trends would significantly under-predict the last two years. The difference isn’t yet sufficient to state that the trends are accelerating, but that might not be too far off.” – Gavin Schmidt, director NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies [1] … Continue Reading

The Grim Reaper and the Great Barrier

December 7, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on The Grim Reaper and the Great Barrier
grimreaper

(to be presented to the Board of Supervisors in January)

“The recent frequency and intensity of mass coral bleaching are of major concern, and are directly attributable to rising atmospheric greenhouse gases.” [1] … Continue Reading

The State of Corals

November 20, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on The State of Corals
Figure 3 close up view of healthy coral polyps. [9]

(Presented to the Board of Supervisors December 6, 2016)

“Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years.” – Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999 [4]

Tony Noerpel
… Continue Reading

Dear Supervisors and Staff

November 3, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Dear Supervisors and Staff
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During the last three years I have been attending public input sessions quietly dismantling one climate change denier argument after another. I have been doing this for over ten years now in other venues. So you are all unsurprised that three years in succession 2014, 2015 and 2016 have been the hottest years on record. We all know as I’ve described that 2017 and 2018 will likely be la Nina years and therefore colder than “normal”. However, these two “cold” years will very likely be hotter than the year global warming stopped in 1998. In fact we will likely never experience a year as cold as 1998 in our lifetimes. We face a future of mega droughts, rising sea levels, superstorms and floods. The pentagon has warned of climate change induced violence and migration. Climate change is a national security threat. … Continue Reading

2016 Energy Summit – George Washington University

October 20, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on 2016 Energy Summit – George Washington University
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On Friday evening, October 28, George Washington University, Virginia Campus in Ashburn will host the 10th annual Don Sandros Energy Summit in cooperation with local businesses and non-profits. Doors open at 6:00 p.m. for a reception with wine donated by Corcoran Vineyards. The discussion begins at 7:00 p.m. The event is open to the public and admission is free.

Don Sandros was an energy specialist who designed and built many of the area’s residential and business solar energy installations. He was a generous man who taught many of the area’s installers their trade. He served as president of Sustainable Loudoun for many years.
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The following material is from: https://geog.umd.edu/facultyprofile/Baiocchi/Giovanni%20 … Continue Reading

Attributing Disaster

October 6, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Attributing Disaster
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“Humans are likely to create a catastrophe, and possibly an associated disaster, that vastly exceeds our own ability to recover from it. In the face of all our efforts, it will persist.” – Richard Guthrie [1]

“Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events…” – Min [2] … Continue Reading

The Company We Keep

September 20, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on The Company We Keep
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“Truly important and significant hypotheses will be found to have assumptions that are wildly inaccurate descriptive representations of reality and, in general, the more significant the theory, the more unrealistic the assumptions.” – Milton Freidman [1]

“I am increasingly convinced that the path to climate action is through the Republican Party.” – Yoram Bauman cited by N. Gregory Mankiw [2]

The logical process of ideology begins with conclusions and reasons backwards to assumptions. Those assumptions, even if wildly inaccurate descriptive representations of reality, are used to justify the desired conclusions. That a market based economy efficiently distributes scarce resources is the neo-liberal economist’s conclusion. If one assumes that all economic transactions are voluntary and all voluntary transactions leave both parties better off with no messy consequences one magically arrives at the desired result. In my last article I showed that economist N. Gregory Mankiw engages in just this sort of logical folly in his justification of extreme wealth inequality. He ignores the physics of randomness and inequality, the positive feedback between wealth and power accumulation, the dynamical nature of society and economics and in fact all of human history. … Continue Reading

Defending the Over-Pampered

August 30, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Defending the Over-Pampered
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“The purpose of studying economics is to learn how not to be deceived by economists.” Joan Robinson, Professor of economics at Cambridge University, Basel Lecture, 1969.

“[W]hereas classisists [economists] turned the spotlight on change, flow, process and dynamics, the neoclassicists [economists] spend their time analyzing states of rest, balance, equilibrium.” – Yanis Varoufakis [1] … Continue Reading

Superforecasting a Book Review

July 25, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Superforecasting a Book Review
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The book “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner contains a nearly complete list of the attributes of superforecasting, as well as critical thinking. Tetlock’s research empirically confirms the aspects of critical thinking I’ve been discussing in this column. Their methodology describes, more or less, how a good engineer or scientist thinks and more or less captures the scientific method as it has evolved since the fourteenth century, if we are willing to substitute the author’s scoring feedback for peer-review. It is a great book selection for a book club both for what the authors discuss as well as for the potential for future research. … Continue Reading

Human Fingerprints on Climate Change

June 29, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Human Fingerprints on Climate Change
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Presented to the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors – June 23, 2016

Recently I was asked whether humanity’s fossil fuel use was the cause of the current global warming. This is a good question and I’m not surprised that there is some confusion and indeed acknowledging that the Earth surface is warming leads inevitably to this question.

The answer is yes we are the cause of 100% of the global warming taking place since 1970. For example, solar radiation has been trending lower as shown in Figure 1. … Continue Reading

Ice house, Hot House and Mad House

June 9, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on Ice house, Hot House and Mad House
noerpel_new

Recently, I was asked: “I know we are putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and scientists say that will warm the planet but there were also ice ages and warmer climates in the past before humans so what caused those climates to change?” This is a good question and the most straightforward answer is that the climate changes when there is an imbalance between the incoming solar radiation principally in the visible light spectrum and the outgoing heat radiation principally in the infrared spectrum [1-2]. We are upsetting the balance by loading the atmosphere with greenhouse gases by burning fossil fuels. Nature upends this balance by exchanging greenhouse gases with the atmosphere from several sources and sinks. … Continue Reading

A Habitable Planet

May 16, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on A Habitable Planet
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“At the moments when we are able to separate ourselves from our daily concerns and ponder deeply, most of us have encountered fundamental questions of our existence as human beings. Where do we come from? What happened before humans appeared on Earth? Where do the stars come from? Do we have a place in planetary evolution? Are there others like us out there somewhere?” Wally Broecker and Charles Langmuir [1]

This series of articles is based on a talk I gave at REHAU in Leesburg on April 28, 2016. … Continue Reading

On Being Phished Hook, Line and Sinker

March 2, 2016 Columns, Sustainable Planet Comments Off on On Being Phished Hook, Line and Sinker
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“[T]here is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels.” senior company scientist James Black told Exxon’s management committee in 1977 [1]

Tony Noerpel

Ten years ago I thought I could convince anybody of the reality of human-caused climate change and the precarious nature of human existence; simply examine the evidence. Physicist Tom Murphy began a blog called “do the math” [2]. Like me he thought any human would find the evidence compelling. He has since admitted he was wrong. So have I. … Continue Reading


 

 

 

 

 

 

Columns

2016 in the Books

noerpel_new

(Presented to the Board of Supervisors February, 2017) “The last three years have demonstrated abundantly clearly that there is no change in the long-term trends since 1998. A prediction from 1997 merely continuing the linear trends would significantly under-predict the …

A Rainy Romance

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By Samuel Moore-Sobel “If you’ve seen one, you’ve seen them all” – a simple phrase uttered in an acclaimed musical that helped birth a star. The movie’s Kathy Selden (Debbie Reynolds) catches his attention so completely that Don Lockwood (Gene …

Concerned Parents

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By Michael Oberschneider, Psy.D. Dr. Mike, Our 15-year-old son is out of control and we don’t know what to do anymore. He smokes pot and drinks, disobeys us left and right, is truant from school often, comes home whenever he …

It’s Time To Review Your Estate Planning Basics

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Beginners and billionaires alike should refresh their knowledge of these basic estate planning terms and concepts. The word “estate” tends to conjure up images of billionaires and aristocrats, but estate planning is not just for the wealthy. It’s widely believed …

Just Like Nothing (Else) on Earth: George Marshall Center

George Marshall Center

I used to wonder why – after an assignment to visit the interior of this place, I’d return feeling exhausted – both mentally and physically worn out – as if I’d been carrying an extra couple hundred pounds or so …

Meeting the “Other America”

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By Nicholas Reid Ever since the presidential election last November, there has been a lot of talk about the “two Americas”: coastal and continental America. The many differences between these two sections of the United States are numerous and oftentimes …

The Trump Effect

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“Corals are marine magicians. As colonies of the tiny ocean organisms grow, they transform the calcium that circulates in seawater into enormous limestone reefs. These reefs—which can extend for more than 1,000 miles and provide homes for crabs, eels, sea …

Student News

Congratulations, Class of 2016

6 Jul 2016

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Woodgrove High School’s Class Of 2016 Graduation – By Amanda Clark On June 16, Woodgrove’s Class of 2016 was the 5th graduating class to walk the stage and accept their diploma. The ceremony was filled with anticipation as the chorus, …

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Buckland Earns Degree In Medicine

6 Jul 2016

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Molly Buckland, D.O., graduated from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine with a degree of Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine on May 28. While at WVSOM, Dr. Buckland received the Dr. Roland P. Sharp President’s Award and the James R. …

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Adams Promoted To Lieutenant

6 Jul 2016

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Lt. James Adams, from Sterling and a Potomac Falls Halls Graduate, earned the promotion to the rank of Lieutenant. Adams is a Navy Week and Executive Outreach Planner for the Navy Office of Community Outreach in Millington, Tennessee. U.S. Navy …

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Calendar

February 2017
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
January 30, 2017 January 31, 2017 February 1, 2017 February 2, 2017

Chair Yoga

Yoga for Men

February 3, 2017 February 4, 2017

CHINESE NEW YEAR EVENT

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Readers Theater

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

February 5, 2017
February 6, 2017 February 7, 2017 February 8, 2017 February 9, 2017

Chair Yoga

Yoga for Men

February 10, 2017 February 11, 2017

Valentine's Pizza & Champagne

Sweetheart’s Soirée- A Night of Dinner & Dancing

February 12, 2017

Candlelight Concert Fundraiser

GALLERY COFFEEHOUSE: Writers’ Night Out

February 13, 2017 February 14, 2017 February 15, 2017

Bob Brown Puppets: Dragon Feathers

February 16, 2017 February 17, 2017

ARTSPOWER: RAINBOW FISH

February 18, 2017

Wine & Chili Weekend

BALLET THEATRE OF ASHBURN AND EDGE PERFORMANCE COMPANY: MALONE BENEFIT CONCERT

Comedy Night feat. Tyrone Davis

February 19, 2017
February 20, 2017 February 21, 2017 February 22, 2017 February 23, 2017 February 24, 2017

February Fourth Friday

February 25, 2017

Samedi Gras Celebration

February 26, 2017
February 27, 2017 February 28, 2017 March 1, 2017 March 2, 2017 March 3, 2017

LAST HAM STANDING COMEDY IMPROV

March 4, 2017

Notaviva Vineyards - Bluegrass Jam - FREE event

March 5, 2017
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Lifestyle

Hillsboro Plans Mardi Gras Celebration on February 25

20 Feb 2017

nothing else main in hillsboro grey

Mardi Gras celebration will be held in Hillsboro on Saturday, February 25 as a benefit for the Old Stone Schoolhouse. The event will begin at 7:30 p.m. Hurricanes and New Orleans drinks, as well as Old 690 beer and local wines will be served in the Garden District Bar. The Cajun Cafe will feature New Orleans cuisine, including King Cakes. …

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Four Young Historians Discuss Civil War Turning Points

2 Feb 2017

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The Mosby Heritage Area Association will hold a talk featuring a panel of four young historians who will discuss turning points in the Civil War. The talk will be held at Unison Methodist Church, 21148 Unison Road, Middleburg, from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. on Sunday, February 12. Tickets will be sold at the door or online at www.mosbyheritagearea.org/events for $15 …

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Love In All of Its Forms … Ain’t It Grand

2 Feb 2017

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Americans exchange hundreds of millions of cards on Valentine’s Day, February 14. The National Retail Federation estimates that we will spend some $20 billion to mark the day and demonstrate to friends and family how much we love them – on what marketers call “Love’s Holiday.” Love. It’s a big deal.

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Editorial

Priscilla Nabs Plum Planning Commission Post

Loudoun County Seal Color

Appointment Shocks Many On January 3 Supervisor Tony R. Buffington Jr. (R-Blue Ridge) nominated Tom Priscilla for the Loudoun County Planning Commission to represent the Blue Ridge District. Priscilla was …

Op-ed

Opinion: Terrorism, Debt, and China: Oh My!

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– By Nick Reid world can be a very dangerous place sometimes, especially for a nation state such as the United States. Although danger is always present, the number and …

Metro Money Mess Pushing West

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– By Delegate Dave LaRock (R-33rd) A local paper recently quoted Loudoun Board Chair Phyllis Randall as saying that in her observation “some of the concerns raised by the people …

Dear Editor

Why Williams Gap Road Should Not Be Paved

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Today, most residents of Loudoun County know nothing about Williams Gap, even those living on Williams Gap Road (Route 711). Knowing who “Williams” was, why a gap in the Blue …

Vote No To the Minor Special Exception

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We are a group of Loudoun County citizens who will be adversely affected if the board grants a special exception for the Catesby Farm property at your upcoming meeting. You …

View From the Ridge

Broken Promises, Hidden by a Six-Foot Berm

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By Andrea Gaines On August 9, 1825 at the age of 69, French military officer the Marquis de Lafayette was honored in Leesburg by former President James Monroe. The French-born …

Around Virginia

Walbridge To Run for State Delegate in the 33rd District

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Tia Walbridge announces her run for the District 33 seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. Walbridge is a wife and mother of two daughters and an active member of the Round Hill community. “Like many people in our district, my family has found its prosperity in a Virginia-based small …

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Office Building on Capitol Square To Be Named After Civil Rights Pioneer Barbara Johns

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Governor Terry McAuliffe announced that the newly renovated state building located at 202 N. 9th Street on Capitol Square in Richmond (currently known as the 9th Street Office Building) will bear the name of civil rights pioneer Barbara Johns. The building, which reopened last year, houses the Virginia Attorney General’s …

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Rep. Comstock’s Key Top Priority Legislation Initiatives

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Signed into Law in Her First Term Rep. Barbara Comstock, who serves the 10th congressional district in Virginia, recently reviewed the achievements of her first term in office, identifying 17 legislative initiatives that she supported that were adopted. She said: “My staff and I have met with stakeholders, local elected …

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Sports

Woodgrove Gymnasts Advance To States

15 Feb 2017

gymnastics Snare

Two Woodgrove High School gymnasts have qualified to advance to the Virginia State Championships Saturday, February 18, at Patriot High School in Nokesville. Sophomore River Stone placed fourth in the all-around competition at the 1A-5A North Regional Gymnastics Championships at Park View High School on Wednesday, February 8, which earns …

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Woodgrove Gymnastics Team Places First

1 Feb 2017

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The Woodgrove High School Gymnastics team for placed first at their home meet. The team competed against squads from Loudoun Valley, Park View and Riverside high schools. Seniors Kaycee Delitta and Sarah Snare were honored at the event for their contributions to the team. The Wolverines excelled in individual competition …

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